This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 53% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 53% to break even | 14%–73% | 13 points shortwon 40%, needs 53% |
| Last 10 games | 4 of 1040%needs 53% to break even | 19%–65% | 13 points shortwon 40%, needs 53% |
| Last 15 games | 9 of 1560%needs 53% to break even | 39%–78% | 7 points betterwon 60%, needs 53% |
| This season | 2 of 633%needs 53% to break even | 12%–65% | 19 points shortwon 33%, needs 53% |
| Last season | 9 of 1369%needs 53% to break even | 46%–85% | 17 points betterwon 69%, needs 53% |
| Every game |
Tonight LV plays at home, as the underdog, after a loss, against LAR. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receiving yards in each game against under 30.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Receiving yards | Beat 30.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 95 | -64.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 5 | ||||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 29.5 receiving yardsMichael Mayer |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 receptionsMichael Mayer |
| 39%–74% |
| 5 points betterwon 58%, needs 53% |
| 2 |
| +28.5 |
| Won |
| Wk 4 | 82 | -51.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 | 32 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 | 23 | +7.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 32 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 18 | 47 | -16.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 17 | 89 | -58.5 | Lost |
| Wk 16 | 10 | +20.5 | Won |
| Wk 15 | 0 | +30.5 | Won |
| Wk 12 | 14 | +16.5 | Won |
| Wk 11 | 13 | +17.5 | Won |
| Wk 10 | 22 | +8.5 | Won |
| Wk 9 | 26 | +4.5 | Won |
| Wk 7 | 10 | +20.5 | Won |
| Wk 6 | 50 | -19.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 | 0 | +30.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | 9 | +21.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 38 | -7.5 | Lost |
| -112at DraftKings |
| 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 53% to break even |
| -21.1Not beating its price |
| Over 30.5 receiving yardsMichael Mayer · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | -114at FanDuel | 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 53% to break even | -21.4Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +104at FanDuel |
| 10 of 13· last season77%needs 49% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -7.5Not beating its price |
| Over 4.5 receptionsMichael Mayer · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | +166at Kalshi | 3 of 6· this season50%needs 38% to break even | Record is this season's | -18.5Not beating its price |
| Over 3.5 receptionsMichael Mayer · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | -121at Kalshi | 3 of 6· this season50%needs 55% to break even | Record is this season's | -31.2Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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