This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 70% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 70% to break even | 27%–86% | 10 points shortwon 60%, needs 70% |
| Last 10 games | 7 of 1070%needs 70% to break even | 44%–87% | evenwon 70%, needs 70% |
| Last 15 games | 12 of 1580%needs 70% to break even | 59%–92% | 10 points betterwon 80%, needs 70% |
| This season | 4 of 667%needs 70% to break even | 35%–88% | 3 points shortwon 67%, needs 70% |
| Last season | 14 of 1593%needs 70% to break even | 75%–98% | 24 points betterwon 93%, needs 70% |
| Every game | 18 of 2186%needs 70% to break even | 69%–94% | 16 points betterwon 86%, needs 70% |
Tonight LAR plays on the road, as the favorite, after a loss, against LV. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receptions in each game against over 0.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Receptions | Beat 0.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 5 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Wk 4 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 3 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Wk 2 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 1 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 18 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 16 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Wk 15 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Wk 14 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Wk 13 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 12 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Wk 10 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Wk 9 | 3 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Wk 7 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 6 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 5 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Wk 4 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 3 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 2 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 1 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 0.5 receptionsDavis Allen · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | +182at FanDuel | 2 of 5· last 5 games40%needs 35% to break even | -21.3Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 9.5 receiving yardsDavis Allen · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | -103at Kalshi | 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 51% to break even | -19.0Not beating its price | ||
| Over 8.5 receiving yardsDavis Allen · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | -113at DraftKings | 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 53% to break even | -20.9Not beating its price | ||
| Under 8.5 receiving yardsDavis Allen · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | -111at DraftKings | 8 of 15· last season53%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -21.3Not beating its price | |
| Under 9.5 receiving yardsDavis Allen · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | -137at Kalshi | 8 of 15· last season53%needs 58% to break even | Record is last season's | -25.5Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.