This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 10% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 10% to break even | 14%–73% | 30 points betterwon 40%, needs 10% |
| Last 10 games | 2 of 1020%needs 10% to break even | 7%–46% | 10 points betterwon 20%, needs 10% |
| Last 15 games | 2 of 1414%needs 10% to break even | 5%–35% | 4 points betterwon 14%, needs 10% |
| This season | 1 of 333%needs 10% to break even | 8%–75% | 23 points betterwon 33%, needs 10% |
| Last season | 1 of 119%needs 10% to break even | 2%–32% | 1 points shortwon 9%, needs 10% |
| Every game |
Tonight IND plays on the road, as the underdog, after a loss, against MIN. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 0 of 6 on the road. Tonight: MIN allows 0 touchdowns a game to tight ends, the 2nd fewest of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 0.5): a tough matchup for this bet. How MIN defends tight ends
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Every Mo Alie-Cox game, newest first: whether Alie-Cox scored a touchdown.
| 5%–35% |
| 4 points betterwon 14%, needs 10% |
| No TD |
| Lost |
| Last season | |||
| Wk 18 | No TD | Lost | |
| Wk 17 | 1 TD | Won |
| Wk 16 | No TD | Lost |
| Wk 14 | No TD | Lost |
| Wk 12 | No TD | Lost |
| Wk 10 | No TD | Lost |
| Wk 9 | No TD | Lost |
| Wk 7 | No TD | Lost |
| Wk 6 | No TD | Lost |
| Wk 2 | No TD | Lost |
| Wk 1 | No TD | Lost |
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