This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 6% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 0 of 50%needs 6% to break even | 0%–35% | 6 points shortwon 0%, needs 6% |
| Last 10 games | 0 of 100%needs 6% to break even | 0%–21% | 6 points shortwon 0%, needs 6% |
| Last 15 games | 0 of 100%needs 6% to break even | 0%–21% | 6 points shortwon 0%, needs 6% |
| This season | 0 of 50%needs 6% to break even | 0%–35% | 6 points shortwon 0%, needs 6% |
| Last season | 0 of 50%needs 6% to break even | 0%–35% | 6 points shortwon 0%, needs 6% |
| Every game | 0 of 100%needs 6% to break even | 0%–21% | 6 points shortwon 0%, needs 6% |
Tonight MIN plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against IND. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 0 of 5 at home. Tonight: IND allows 1 touchdowns a game to running backs, the 9th most of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 0.9): an easy matchup for this bet. How IND defends running backs
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