This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 44% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 44% to break even | 14%–73% | 4 points shortwon 40%, needs 44% |
| Last 10 games | 3 of 1030%needs 44% to break even | 13%–56% | 14 points shortwon 30%, needs 44% |
| Last 15 games | 4 of 1527%needs 44% to break even | 13%–48% | 17 points shortwon 27%, needs 44% |
| This season | 2 of 540%needs 44% to break even | 14%–73% | 4 points shortwon 40%, needs 44% |
| Last season | 5 of 1729%needs 44% to break even | 15%–49% | 14 points shortwon 29%, needs 44% |
| Every game | 7 of 2232%needs 44% to break even | 18%–49% | 12 points shortwon 32%, needs 44% |
Tonight DET plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against GB. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
3Q margin in each game against det 3q -2.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | 3Q margin | Beat 2.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 11 | 7 | +4.5 | ||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
This team's other lines in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET -2.5 2nd quarter spreadDetroit Lions · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET |
| Won |
| Oct 4 | -10 | -12.5 | Lost |
| Sep 27 | 4 | +1.5 | Won |
| Sep 17 | 0 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Sep 13 | 0 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Jan 4 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 25 | -6 | -8.5 | Lost |
| Dec 21 | -2 | -4.5 | Lost |
| Dec 14 | -17 | -19.5 | Lost |
| Dec 4 | -3 | -5.5 | Lost |
| Nov 27 | -7 | -9.5 | Lost |
| Nov 23 | 0 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Nov 16 | 0 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Nov 9 | 4 | +1.5 | Won |
| Nov 2 | -4 | -6.5 | Lost |
| Oct 20 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Oct 12 | -7 | -9.5 | Lost |
| Oct 5 | 14 | +11.5 | Won |
| Sep 28 | -3 | -5.5 | Lost |
| Sep 22 | 0 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Sep 14 | 10 | +7.5 | Won |
| Sep 7 | 3 | +0.5 | Won |
| 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 50% to break even |
| -1.8Not beating its price |
| DET +0.5 2nd quarter spreadDetroit Lions · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | -191at Kalshi | 15 of 17· last season88%needs 66% to break even | Record is last season's | -2.2Not beating its price |
| Over 54.5 game total, DET gamesDetroit Lions · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | +105at Kalshi | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 49% to break even | -4.2Not beating its price |
| Over 52.5 game total, DET gamesDetroit Lions · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | -123at Polymarket | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 55% to break even | -4.7Not beating its price |
| DET -0.5 2nd quarter spreadDetroit Lions · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | -116at Kalshi | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 54% to break even | -5.1Not beating its price |
| DET -3.5 2nd quarter spreadDetroit Lions · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | +140at Kalshi | 11 of 17· last season65%needs 42% to break even | Record is last season's | -5.2Not beating its price |
| Over 53.5 game total, DET gamesDetroit Lions · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | NV-106at Novig | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 51% to break even | -6.4Not beating its price |
| Over 50.5 game total, DET gamesDetroit Lions · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | -161at Kalshi | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 62% to break even | -7.3Not beating its price |
| Over 51.5 game total, DET gamesDetroit Lions · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | -142at Kalshi | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 59% to break even | -7.6Not beating its price |
| Over 28.5 2nd half totalDetroit Lions · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | +124at Kalshi | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 45% to break even | -7.8Not beating its price |
| Over 56.5 game total, DET gamesDetroit Lions · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | +131at Polymarket | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 43% to break even | -8.5Not beating its price |
| Over 13.5 3rd quarter totalDetroit Lions · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | +134at Kalshi | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 43% to break even | -9.3Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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