This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 60% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 4 of 580%needs 60% to break even | 44%–95% | 20 points betterwon 80%, needs 60% |
| Last 10 games | 5 of 1050%needs 60% to break even | 27%–73% | 10 points shortwon 50%, needs 60% |
| Last 15 games | 6 of 1540%needs 60% to break even | 22%–61% | 20 points shortwon 40%, needs 60% |
| This season | 4 of 580%needs 60% to break even | 44%–95% | 20 points betterwon 80%, needs 60% |
| Last season | 7 of 1741%needs 60% to break even | 24%–61% | 19 points shortwon 41%, needs 60% |
| Every game |
Tonight DET plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against GB. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receiving yards in each game against under 59.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Receiving yards | Beat 59.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 5 | ||||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 49.5 receiving yardsJameson Williams |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 3.5 receptionsJameson Williams |
| 33%–67% |
| 10 points shortwon 50%, needs 60% |
| 47 |
| +12.5 |
| Won |
| Wk 4 | 102 | -42.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 | 49 | +10.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | 33 | +26.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 45 | +14.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 18 | 74 | -14.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 17 | 37 | +22.5 | Won |
| Wk 16 | 70 | -10.5 | Lost |
| Wk 15 | 134 | -74.5 | Lost |
| Wk 14 | 96 | -36.5 | Lost |
| Wk 13 | 144 | -84.5 | Lost |
| Wk 12 | 0 | +59.5 | Won |
| Wk 11 | 88 | -28.5 | Lost |
| Wk 10 | 119 | -59.5 | Lost |
| Wk 9 | 66 | -6.5 | Lost |
| Wk 7 | 0 | +59.5 | Won |
| Wk 6 | 66 | -6.5 | Lost |
| Wk 5 | 9 | +50.5 | Won |
| Wk 4 | 40 | +19.5 | Won |
| Wk 3 | 43 | +16.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | 108 | -48.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | 23 | +36.5 | Won |
| -126at Kalshi |
| 10 of 17· last season59%needs 56% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -21.2Not beating its price |
| Over 51.5 receiving yardsJameson Williams · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | -115at BetMGM | 10 of 17· last season59%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -19.4Not beating its price |
| Over 54.5 receiving yardsJameson Williams · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | -112at DraftKings | 10 of 17· last season59%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -18.8Not beating its price |
| Over 59.5 receiving yardsJameson Williams · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | +109at Kalshi | 10 of 17· last season59%needs 48% to break even | Record is last season's | -14.8Not beating its price |
| Over 69.5 receiving yardsJameson Williams · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | +159at Kalshi | 8 of 15· last 15 games53%needs 39% to break even | -11.1Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| -135at BetOnline |
| 11 of 15· last 15 games73%needs 57% to break even |
| -13.0Not beating its price |
| Over 4.5 receptionsJameson Williams · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | +159at Kalshi | 7 of 15· last 15 games47%needs 39% to break even | -13.5Not beating its price |
| Scores a TDJameson Williams · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | +198at Kalshi | 7 of 17· last season41%needs 34% to break even | Record is last season's | -14.6Not beating its price |
| Under 3.5 receptionsJameson Williams · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | +111at DraftKings | 7 of 17· last season41%needs 47% to break even | Record is last season's | -25.2Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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