This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 44% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 44% to break even | 27%–86% | 16 points betterwon 60%, needs 44% |
| Last 10 games | 5 of 1050%needs 44% to break even | 27%–73% | 6 points betterwon 50%, needs 44% |
| Last 15 games | 8 of 1553%needs 44% to break even | 33%–72% | 10 points betterwon 53%, needs 44% |
| This season | 3 of 560%needs 44% to break even | 27%–86% | 16 points betterwon 60%, needs 44% |
| Last season | 7 of 1741%needs 44% to break even | 24%–61% | 2 points shortwon 41%, needs 44% |
Tonight DET plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against GB. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receiving yards in each game against under 69.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Receiving yards | Beat 69.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 5 | ||||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 69.5 receiving yardsAmon-Ra St. Brown |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doesn't score a TDAmon-Ra St. Brown · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET |
| Every game | 10 of 2245%needs 44% to break even | 29%–62% | 2 points betterwon 45%, needs 44% |
| 69 |
| +0.5 |
| Won |
| Wk 4 | 75 | -5.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 | 19 | +50.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | 142 | -72.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | 67 | +2.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 18 | 139 | -69.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 17 | 68 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 16 | 54 | +15.5 | Won |
| Wk 15 | 164 | -94.5 | Lost |
| Wk 14 | 92 | -22.5 | Lost |
| Wk 13 | 0 | +69.5 | Won |
| Wk 12 | 149 | -79.5 | Lost |
| Wk 11 | 42 | +27.5 | Won |
| Wk 10 | 58 | +11.5 | Won |
| Wk 9 | 97 | -27.5 | Lost |
| Wk 7 | 86 | -16.5 | Lost |
| Wk 6 | 45 | +24.5 | Won |
| Wk 5 | 100 | -30.5 | Lost |
| Wk 4 | 70 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 | 77 | -7.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 | 115 | -45.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | 45 | +24.5 | Won |
| -168at Kalshi |
| 10 of 17· last season59%needs 63% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -27.8Not beating its price |
| Over 78.5 receiving yardsAmon-Ra St. Brown · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | -114at FanDuel | 8 of 17· last season47%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -26.8Not beating its price |
| Over 79.5 receiving yardsAmon-Ra St. Brown · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | -112at Kalshi | 8 of 17· last season47%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -26.5Not beating its price |
| Over 80.5 receiving yardsAmon-Ra St. Brown · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | -114at DraftKings | 8 of 17· last season47%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -26.8Not beating its price |
| Over 89.5 receiving yardsAmon-Ra St. Brown · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | +129at Kalshi | 7 of 17· last season41%needs 44% to break even | Record is last season's | -20.2Not beating its price |
| Over 99.5 receiving yardsAmon-Ra St. Brown · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | +189at Kalshi | 5 of 17· last season29%needs 35% to break even | Record is last season's | -18.5Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| -103at Kalshi |
| 10 of 17· last season59%needs 51% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -14.0Not beating its price |
| Over 8.5 receptionsAmon-Ra St. Brown · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | +166at Kalshi | 6 of 15· last 15 games40%needs 38% to break even | -15.0Not beating its price |
| Over 7.5 receptionsAmon-Ra St. Brown · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | +101at Kalshi | 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 50% to break even | -15.1Not beating its price |
| Under 6.5 receptionsAmon-Ra St. Brown · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | +134at Kalshi | 7 of 15· last 15 games47%needs 43% to break even | -16.9Not beating its price |
| Under 7.5 receptionsAmon-Ra St. Brown · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | -112at DraftKings | 9 of 17· last season53%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -22.6Not beating its price |
| Over 6.5 receptionsAmon-Ra St. Brown · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | -175at Kalshi | 10 of 17· last season59%needs 64% to break even | Record is last season's | -23.7Not beating its price |
| Scores a TDAmon-Ra St. Brown · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | -121at Kalshi | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 55% to break even | -25.8Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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