This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 34% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 520%needs 34% to break even | 5%–56% | 14 points shortwon 20%, needs 34% |
| Last 10 games | 3 of 1030%needs 34% to break even | 13%–56% | 4 points shortwon 30%, needs 34% |
| Last 15 games | 4 of 1527%needs 34% to break even | 13%–48% | 7 points shortwon 27%, needs 34% |
| This season | 1 of 520%needs 34% to break even | 5%–56% | 14 points shortwon 20%, needs 34% |
| Last season | 5 of 1729%needs 34% to break even | 15%–49% | 4 points shortwon 29%, needs 34% |
| Every game |
Tonight DET plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against GB. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receiving yards in each game against over 99.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Receiving yards | Beat 99.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 5 | ||||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 59.5 receiving yardsAmon-Ra St. Brown |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doesn't score a TDAmon-Ra St. Brown · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET |
| 15%–45% |
| 6 points shortwon 27%, needs 34% |
| 69 |
| -30.5 |
| Lost |
| Wk 4 | 75 | -24.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 | 19 | -80.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 | 142 | +42.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 67 | -32.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 18 | 139 | +39.5 | Won | |
| Wk 17 | 68 | -31.5 | Lost |
| Wk 16 | 54 | -45.5 | Lost |
| Wk 15 | 164 | +64.5 | Won |
| Wk 14 | 92 | -7.5 | Lost |
| Wk 13 | 0 | -99.5 | Lost |
| Wk 12 | 149 | +49.5 | Won |
| Wk 11 | 42 | -57.5 | Lost |
| Wk 10 | 58 | -41.5 | Lost |
| Wk 9 | 97 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Wk 7 | 86 | -13.5 | Lost |
| Wk 6 | 45 | -54.5 | Lost |
| Wk 5 | 100 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 4 | 70 | -29.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 | 77 | -22.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 | 115 | +15.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 45 | -54.5 | Lost |
| +189at Kalshi |
| 6 of 17· last season35%needs 35% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -17.6Not beating its price |
| Under 69.5 receiving yardsAmon-Ra St. Brown · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | +129at Kalshi | 8 of 15· last 15 games53%needs 44% to break even | -13.0Not beating its price |
| Under 78.5 receiving yardsAmon-Ra St. Brown · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | -114at FanDuel | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 53% to break even | -12.9Not beating its price |
| Under 79.5 receiving yardsAmon-Ra St. Brown · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | -112at Kalshi | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 53% to break even | -12.6Not beating its price |
| Under 80.5 receiving yardsAmon-Ra St. Brown · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | -110at DraftKings | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 52% to break even | -12.2Not beating its price |
| Under 89.5 receiving yardsAmon-Ra St. Brown · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | -175at Kalshi | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 64% to break even | -20.0Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +109at Kalshi |
| 10 of 17· last season59%needs 48% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -11.6Not beating its price |
| Over 7.5 receptionsAmon-Ra St. Brown · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | +101at Kalshi | 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 50% to break even | -15.1Not beating its price |
| Over 8.5 receptionsAmon-Ra St. Brown · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | +159at Kalshi | 6 of 15· last 15 games40%needs 39% to break even | -15.8Not beating its price |
| Under 6.5 receptionsAmon-Ra St. Brown · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | +134at Kalshi | 7 of 15· last 15 games47%needs 43% to break even | -16.9Not beating its price |
| Under 7.5 receptionsAmon-Ra St. Brown · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | -112at DraftKings | 9 of 17· last season53%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -22.6Not beating its price |
| Over 6.5 receptionsAmon-Ra St. Brown · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | -183at Kalshi | 10 of 17· last season59%needs 65% to break even | Record is last season's | -24.6Not beating its price |
| Scores a TDAmon-Ra St. Brown · Sun, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET | -131at Kalshi | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 57% to break even | -27.4Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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