This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 62% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 5 of 5100%needs 62% to break even | 65%–100% | 38 points betterwon 100%, needs 62% |
| Last 10 games | 6 of 1060%needs 62% to break even | 35%–81% | 2 points shortwon 60%, needs 62% |
| Last 15 games | 8 of 1553%needs 62% to break even | 33%–72% | 8 points shortwon 53%, needs 62% |
| This season | 5 of 5100%needs 62% to break even | 65%–100% | 38 points betterwon 100%, needs 62% |
| Last season | 5 of 1729%needs 62% to break even | 15%–49% | 32 points shortwon 29%, needs 62% |
| Every game | 10 of 2245%needs 62% to break even | 29%–62% | 16 points shortwon 45%, needs 62% |
Tonight MIA plays on the road, as the underdog, after a loss, against NYJ. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
MIA 1H points in each game against under 9.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | MIA 1H points | Beat 9.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 11 | 7 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Oct 4 | 0 | +9.5 | Won | |
| Sep 27 | 7 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Sep 20 | 6 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Sep 13 | 6 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| Jan 4 | 10 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 28 | 17 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 21 | 14 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 15 | 3 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Dec 7 | 24 | -14.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 30 | 16 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 16 | 6 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Nov 9 | 16 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 30 | 6 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Oct 26 | 17 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 19 | 6 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Oct 12 | 13 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 5 | 17 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 29 | 10 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 18 | 14 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 14 | 14 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 7 | 0 | +9.5 | Won | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 6.5 1st half team totalMiami Dolphins · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -175at Kalshi | 12 of 17· last season71%needs 64% to break even | Record is last season's | -21.6Not beating its price | |
| Over 7.5 1st half team totalMiami Dolphins · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +101at Kalshi | 12 of 17· last season71%needs 50% to break even | Record is last season's | -18.1Not beating its price | |
| Over 9.5 1st half team totalMiami Dolphins · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +114at Kalshi | 12 of 17· last season71%needs 47% to break even | Record is last season's | -15.6Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This team's other lines in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.