This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 60% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 60% to break even | 14%–73% | 20 points shortwon 40%, needs 60% |
| Last 10 games | 3 of 1030%needs 60% to break even | 13%–56% | 30 points shortwon 30%, needs 60% |
| Last 15 games | 5 of 1533%needs 60% to break even | 17%–54% | 26 points shortwon 33%, needs 60% |
| This season | 2 of 540%needs 60% to break even | 14%–73% | 20 points shortwon 40%, needs 60% |
| Last season | 5 of 1729%needs 60% to break even | 15%–49% | 30 points shortwon 29%, needs 60% |
| Every game | 7 of 2232%needs 60% to break even | 18%–49% | 28 points shortwon 32%, needs 60% |
Tonight MIA plays on the road, as the underdog, after a loss, against NYJ. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
3Q margin in each game against mia 3q +2.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | 3Q margin | Beat -2.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 11 | -4 | |||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
This team's other lines in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 39.5 game total, MIA gamesMiami Dolphins · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET |
| -1.5 |
| Lost |
| Oct 4 | 7 | +9.5 | Won |
| Sep 27 | 3 | +5.5 | Won |
| Sep 20 | -21 | -18.5 | Lost |
| Sep 13 | -3 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Jan 4 | -14 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 28 | -3 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Dec 21 | -21 | -18.5 | Lost |
| Dec 15 | -14 | -11.5 | Lost |
| Dec 7 | 0 | +2.5 | Won |
| Nov 30 | -8 | -5.5 | Lost |
| Nov 16 | -7 | -4.5 | Lost |
| Nov 9 | 0 | +2.5 | Won |
| Oct 30 | -14 | -11.5 | Lost |
| Oct 26 | 7 | +9.5 | Won |
| Oct 19 | -7 | -4.5 | Lost |
| Oct 12 | -14 | -11.5 | Lost |
| Oct 5 | -3 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Sep 29 | 7 | +9.5 | Won |
| Sep 18 | -7 | -4.5 | Lost |
| Sep 14 | -2 | +0.5 | Won |
| Sep 7 | -3 | -0.5 | Lost |
| 12 of 17· last season71%needs 49% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -5.9Not beating its price |
| Over 36.5 game total, MIA gamesMiami Dolphins · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -161at Kalshi | 15 of 17· last season88%needs 62% to break even | Record is last season's | -6.7Not beating its price |
| Over 41.5 game total, MIA gamesMiami Dolphins · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +124at Kalshi | 11 of 17· last season65%needs 45% to break even | Record is last season's | -8.8Not beating its price |
| Over 40.5 game total, MIA gamesMiami Dolphins · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +114at Kalshi | 12 of 17· last season71%needs 47% to break even | Record is last season's | -9.1Not beating its price |
| Over 35.5 game total, MIA gamesMiami Dolphins · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -183at Kalshi | 15 of 17· last season88%needs 65% to break even | Record is last season's | -9.1Not beating its price |
| Over 37.5 game total, MIA gamesMiami Dolphins · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -137at Kalshi | 13 of 17· last season76%needs 58% to break even | Record is last season's | -10.2Not beating its price |
| Over 38.5 game total, MIA gamesMiami Dolphins · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -121at Kalshi | 12 of 17· last season71%needs 55% to break even | Record is last season's | -10.6Not beating its price |
| Over 20.5 team totalMiami Dolphins · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +181at Kalshi | 10 of 17· last season59%needs 36% to break even | Record is last season's | -11.1Not beating its price |
| MIA -2.5 2nd quarter spreadMiami Dolphins · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +181at Kalshi | 10 of 17· last season59%needs 36% to break even | Record is last season's | -11.9Not beating its price |
| Over 44.5 game total, MIA gamesMiami Dolphins · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +189at Kalshi | 7 of 17· last season41%needs 35% to break even | Record is last season's | -13.4Not beating its price |
| MIA -2.5 4th quarter spreadMiami Dolphins · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +181at Kalshi | 6 of 15· last 15 games40%needs 36% to break even | -14.5Not beating its price |
| MIA +0.5 1st quarter spreadMiami Dolphins · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -131at Kalshi | 12 of 17· last season71%needs 57% to break even | Record is last season's | -14.7Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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