This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 53% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 53% to break even | 14%–73% | 13 points shortwon 40%, needs 53% |
| Last 10 games | 2 of 1020%needs 53% to break even | 7%–46% | 33 points shortwon 20%, needs 53% |
| Last 15 games | 2 of 1513%needs 53% to break even | 5%–33% | 40 points shortwon 13%, needs 53% |
| This season | 2 of 450%needs 53% to break even | 18%–82% | 3 points shortwon 50%, needs 53% |
| Last season | 0 of 170%needs 53% to break even | 0%–14% | 53 points shortwon 0%, needs 53% |
| Every game | 2 of 2110%needs 53% to break even | 3%–25% | 44 points shortwon 10%, needs 53% |
Tonight MIA plays on the road, as the underdog, after a loss, against NYJ. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Rushing yards in each game against over 49.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Rushing yards | Beat 49.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 5 | 88 | +38.5 | Won | |
| Wk 4 | 100 | +50.5 | Won | |
| Wk 3 | 41 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 2 | 7 | -42.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 18 | 9 | -40.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 17 | 0 | -49.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 16 | -1 | -50.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 15 | 0 | -49.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 14 | 17 | -32.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 13 | 10 | -39.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 11 | 45 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 10 | -3 | -52.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 9 | 6 | -43.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 8 | 46 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 7 | 11 | -38.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 6 | 1 | -48.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 5 | -2 | -51.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | 10 | -39.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 3 | 38 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 2 | 8 | -41.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 1 | 4 | -45.5 | Lost | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 39.5 rushing yardsOllie Gordon II · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +173at Kalshi | 15 of 17· last season88%needs 37% to break even | Record is last season's | 1.5Slight | |
| Under 48.5 rushing yardsOllie Gordon II · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -114at FanDuel | 17 of 17· last season100%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | 0.1Slight | |
| Under 49.5 rushing yardsOllie Gordon II · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +101at Kalshi | 17 of 17· last season100%needs 50% to break even | Record is last season's | 3.0Slight | |
| Under 53.5 rushing yardsOllie Gordon II · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -118at BetRivers | 17 of 17· last season100%needs 54% to break even | Record is last season's | -0.6Not beating its price | |
| Under 59.5 rushing yardsOllie Gordon II · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -168at Kalshi | 17 of 17· last season100%needs 63% to break even | Record is last season's | -7.5Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This player's other props in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.