This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 51% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 51% to break even | 27%–86% | 9 points betterwon 60%, needs 51% |
| Last 10 games | 8 of 1080%needs 51% to break even | 54%–93% | 29 points betterwon 80%, needs 51% |
| Last 15 games | 13 of 1587%needs 51% to break even | 67%–95% | 36 points betterwon 87%, needs 51% |
| This season | 2 of 450%needs 51% to break even | 18%–82% | 1 points shortwon 50%, needs 51% |
| Last season | 17 of 17100%needs 51% to break even | 86%–100% | 49 points betterwon 100%, needs 51% |
Tonight MIA plays on the road, as the underdog, after a loss, against NYJ. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Rush attempts in each game against under 13.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Rush attempts | Beat 13.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 5 | 18 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | ||||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 13.5 rush attemptsOllie Gordon II |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 7.5 receiving yardsOllie Gordon II |
| Every game | 19 of 2190%needs 51% to break even | 75%–97% | 40 points betterwon 90%, needs 51% |
| 9 |
| +4.5 |
| Won |
| Wk 3 | 17 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 | 3 | +10.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 18 | 9 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Wk 17 | 0 | +13.5 | Won |
| Wk 16 | 1 | +12.5 | Won |
| Wk 15 | 2 | +11.5 | Won |
| Wk 14 | 5 | +8.5 | Won |
| Wk 13 | 3 | +10.5 | Won |
| Wk 11 | 9 | +4.5 | Won |
| Wk 10 | 1 | +12.5 | Won |
| Wk 9 | 2 | +11.5 | Won |
| Wk 8 | 10 | +3.5 | Won |
| Wk 7 | 5 | +8.5 | Won |
| Wk 6 | 2 | +11.5 | Won |
| Wk 5 | 3 | +10.5 | Won |
| Wk 4 | 6 | +7.5 | Won |
| Wk 3 | 9 | +4.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | 1 | +12.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 2 | +11.5 | Won |
| -131at Kalshi |
| 2 of 4· this season50%needs 57% to break even |
| Record is this season's |
| -39.3Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| -110at BetMGM |
| 16 of 17· last season94%needs 52% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| 5.7Good |
| Under 6.5 receiving yardsOllie Gordon II · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -114at FanDuel | 16 of 17· last season94%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | 4.9Good |
| Under 49.5 rushing yardsOllie Gordon II · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +105at Kalshi | 17 of 17· last season100%needs 49% to break even | Record is last season's | 3.8Good |
| Under 48.5 rushing yardsOllie Gordon II · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -114at FanDuel | 17 of 17· last season100%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | 0.1Slight |
| Under 1.5 receptionsOllie Gordon II · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -116at BetOnline | 17 of 17· last season100%needs 54% to break even | Record is last season's | -0.2Not beating its price |
| Under 53.5 rushing yardsOllie Gordon II · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -118at BetRivers | 17 of 17· last season100%needs 54% to break even | Record is last season's | -0.6Not beating its price |
| Under 9.5 receiving yardsOllie Gordon II · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -191at Kalshi | 16 of 17· last season94%needs 66% to break even | Record is last season's | -5.0Not beating its price |
| Under 59.5 rushing yardsOllie Gordon II · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -175at Kalshi | 17 of 17· last season100%needs 64% to break even | Record is last season's | -8.2Not beating its price |
| Scores a TDOllie Gordon II · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +198at Kalshi | 3 of 4· this season75%needs 34% to break even | Record is this season's | -9.1Not beating its price |
| Over 59.5 rushing yardsOllie Gordon II · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +129at Kalshi | 2 of 4· this season50%needs 44% to break even | Record is this season's | -28.8Not beating its price |
| Over 9.5 receiving yardsOllie Gordon II · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +140at Kalshi | 1 of 4· this season25%needs 42% to break even | Record is this season's | -30.8Not beating its price |
| Over 1.5 receptionsOllie Gordon II · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +105at BetMGM | 2 of 4· this season50%needs 49% to break even | Record is this season's | -32.9Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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