This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 40% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 520%needs 40% to break even | 5%–56% | 20 points shortwon 20%, needs 40% | 10.2rushing yards |
| Last 10 games | 4 of 1040%needs 40% to break even | 19%–65% | evenwon 40%, needs 40% | 26.7rushing yards |
| Last 15 games | 5 of 1338%needs 40% to break even | 20%–61% | 2 points shortwon 38%, needs 40% | 24.3rushing yards |
| This season | 0 of 40%needs 40% to break even | 0%–40% | 40 points shortwon 0%, needs 40% | 7rushing yards |
| Last season | 5 of 956% |
Tonight MIA plays on the road, as the underdog, after a loss, against NYJ. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 3 of 7 on the road. Tonight: NYJ allows 105.8 rushing yards a game to running backs, the 6th most of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 89.6): an easy matchup for this bet. How NYJ defends running backs
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Rushing yards in each game against over 19.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Rushing yards | Beat 19.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 5 | 11 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | ||||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scores a TD |
| 30%–78% |
| 15 points betterwon 56%, needs 40% |
| 32rushing yards |
| Every game | 5 of 1338%needs 40% to break even | 20%–61% | 2 points shortwon 38%, needs 40% | 24.3rushing yards |
| 7 |
| -12.5 |
| Lost |
| Wk 2 | 11 | -8.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | -1 | -20.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 18 | 23 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Wk 17 | 56 | +36.5 | Won |
| Wk 16 | 35 | +15.5 | Won |
| Wk 15 | 2 | -17.5 | Lost |
| Wk 14 | 107 | +87.5 | Won |
| Wk 13 | 16 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Wk 11 | 4 | -15.5 | Lost |
| Wk 10 | 17 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Wk 8 | 28 | +8.5 | Won |
| -107at DraftKings |
| 4 of 4· this season100%needs 52% to break even4 of 7 on the road |
| Record is this season's |
| -15.0Not beating its price |
| Under 15.5 rushing yardsJaylen Wright · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -114at FanDuel | 4 of 4· this season100%needs 53% to break even4 of 7 on the road | Record is this season's | -16.1Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +600at DraftKings |
| 2 of 9· last season22%needs 14% to break even1 of 7 on the road |
| Record is last season's |
| -7.2Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.
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