This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 66% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 66% to break even | 27%–86% | 6 points shortwon 60%, needs 66% | 2.4receptions |
| Last 10 games | 4 of 667%needs 66% to break even | 35%–88% | 1 points betterwon 67%, needs 66% | 2.5receptions |
| Last 15 games | 4 of 667%needs 66% to break even | 35%–88% | 1 points betterwon 67%, needs 66% | 2.5receptions |
| This season | 4 of 667%needs 66% to break even | 35%–88% | 1 points betterwon 67%, needs 66% | 2.5receptions |
| Every game | 4 of 667%needs 66% to break even | 35%–88% | 1 points betterwon 67%, needs 66% | 2.5receptions |
Tonight NYJ plays at home, as the favorite, after a loss, against MIA. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Tonight: MIA allows 7.4 receptions a game to tight ends, the 3rd most of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 5.5): an easy matchup for this bet. How MIA defends tight ends
Create a free account to see games like tonight
Free, takes a few seconds. No card needed.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receptions in each game against over 1.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
Create a free account to see every number on a bet
Free, takes a few seconds. No card needed.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 1.5 receptionsKenyon Sadiq · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +159at Kalshi | 2 of 5· last 5 games40%needs 39% to break even | -14.1Not beating its price | ||
| Under 2.5 receptionsKenyon Sadiq · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -161at Kalshi | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 62% to break even | -12.7Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This player's other props in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.