This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 67% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 67% to break even | 27%–86% | 7 points shortwon 60%, needs 67% |
| Last 10 games | 6 of 1060%needs 67% to break even | 35%–81% | 7 points shortwon 60%, needs 67% |
| Last 15 games | 8 of 1362%needs 67% to break even | 39%–80% | 5 points shortwon 62%, needs 67% |
| This season | 4 of 667%needs 67% to break even | 35%–88% | evenwon 67%, needs 67% |
| Last season | 4 of 757%needs 67% to break even | 29%–81% | 9 points shortwon 57%, needs 67% |
| Every game |
Tonight NYJ plays at home, as the favorite, after a loss, against MIA. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receptions in each game against over 4.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 4.5 receptionsGarrett Wilson |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scores a TDGarrett Wilson · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET |
| 39%–80% |
| 5 points shortwon 62%, needs 67% |
| Wk 3 | 10 | +5.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | 5 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 6 | +1.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 10 | 0 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 6 | 3 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 5 | 6 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 4 | 6 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 3 | 10 | +5.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | 4 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | 7 | +2.5 | Won |
| +152at Kalshi |
| 5 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped38%needs 40% to break even |
| -16.3Not beating its price |
| Under 5.5 receptionsGarrett Wilson · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -121at Kalshi | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 55% to break even | -22.4Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +159at Kalshi |
| 7 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped54%needs 39% to break even |
| -7.9Not beating its price |
| Over 79.5 receiving yardsGarrett Wilson · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +181at Kalshi | 5 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped38%needs 36% to break even | -14.4Not beating its price |
| Over 69.5 receiving yardsGarrett Wilson · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +114at Kalshi | 7 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped54%needs 47% to break even | -15.2Not beating its price |
| Under 59.5 receiving yardsGarrett Wilson · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +114at Kalshi | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 47% to break even | -16.6Not beating its price |
| Under 49.5 receiving yardsGarrett Wilson · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +159at Kalshi | 4 of 10· last 10 games40%needs 39% to break even | -17.9Not beating its price |
| Over 62.5 receiving yardsGarrett Wilson · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -114at DraftKings | 7 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped54%needs 53% to break even | -19.9Not beating its price |
| Over 61.5 receiving yardsGarrett Wilson · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -114at FanDuel | 7 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped54%needs 53% to break even | -19.9Not beating its price |
| Under 62.5 receiving yardsGarrett Wilson · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -110at DraftKings | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 52% to break even | -20.7Not beating its price |
| Over 60.5 receiving yardsGarrett Wilson · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -120at BetRivers | 7 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped54%needs 55% to break even | -20.8Not beating its price |
| Under 61.5 receiving yardsGarrett Wilson · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -114at FanDuel | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 53% to break even | -21.3Not beating its price |
| Under 60.5 receiving yardsGarrett Wilson · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -121at BetRivers | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 55% to break even | -22.4Not beating its price |
| Over 59.5 receiving yardsGarrett Wilson · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -137at Kalshi | 7 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped54%needs 58% to break even | -23.2Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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