This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 55% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 520%needs 55% to break even | 5%–56% | 35 points shortwon 20%, needs 55% |
| Last 10 games | 1 of 1010%needs 55% to break even | 2%–35% | 45 points shortwon 10%, needs 55% |
| Last 15 games | 1 of 1010%needs 55% to break even | 2%–35% | 45 points shortwon 10%, needs 55% |
| This season | 1 of 617%needs 55% to break even | 4%–50% | 38 points shortwon 17%, needs 55% |
| Last season | 0 of 40%needs 55% to break even | 0%–40% | 55 points shortwon 0%, needs 55% |
| Every game | 1 of 1010%needs 55% to break even | 2%–35% | 45 points shortwon 10%, needs 55% |
Tonight NYJ plays at home, as the favorite, after a loss, against MIA. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receptions in each game against over 2.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 14.5 receiving yardsBraelon Allen · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETHall questionable: next up at RB | -115at BetRivers | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 53% to break even | -5.5Not beating its price | ||
| Doesn't score a TDBraelon Allen · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETHall questionable: next up at RB | -131at Kalshi | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 57% to break even | -13.8Not beating its price | ||
| Scores a TDBraelon Allen · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETHall questionable: next up at RB | +109at Kalshi | 2 of 5· last 5 games40%needs 48% to break even | -24.8Not beating its price | ||
| Over 14.5 receiving yardsBraelon Allen · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETHall questionable: next up at RB | -125at BetRivers | 2 of 10· last 10 games20%needs 56% to break even | -33.5Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.