This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 57% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 57% to break even | 27%–86% | 3 points betterwon 60%, needs 57% |
| Last 10 games | 7 of 1070%needs 57% to break even | 44%–87% | 13 points betterwon 70%, needs 57% |
| Last 15 games | 7 of 1070%needs 57% to break even | 44%–87% | 13 points betterwon 70%, needs 57% |
| This season | 4 of 667%needs 57% to break even | 35%–88% | 10 points betterwon 67%, needs 57% |
| Last season | 3 of 475%needs 57% to break even | 36%–94% | 18 points betterwon 75%, needs 57% |
| Every game | 7 of 1070%needs 57% to break even | 44%–87% | 13 points betterwon 70%, needs 57% |
Tonight NYJ plays at home, as the favorite, after a loss, against MIA. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Anytime TD in each game against no, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scores a TDBraelon Allen · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETHall questionable: next up at RB | +109at Kalshi | 2 of 5· last 5 games40%needs 48% to break even | -24.8Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 14.5 receiving yardsBraelon Allen · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETHall questionable: next up at RB | -115at BetRivers | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 53% to break even | -5.5Not beating its price | ||
| Over 14.5 receiving yardsBraelon Allen · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETHall questionable: next up at RB | -125at BetRivers | 2 of 10· last 10 games20%needs 56% to break even | -33.5Not beating its price | ||
| Over 2.5 receptionsBraelon Allen · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETHall questionable: next up at RB | -120at BetRivers | 1 of 5· last 5 games20%needs 55% to break even | -34.8Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.