This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 52% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 520%needs 52% to break even | 5%–56% | 32 points shortwon 20%, needs 52% | 27.4receiving yards |
| Last 10 games | 2 of 633%needs 52% to break even | 12%–65% | 19 points shortwon 33%, needs 52% | 26.3receiving yards |
| Last 15 games | 2 of 633%needs 52% to break even | 12%–65% | 19 points shortwon 33%, needs 52% | 26.3receiving yards |
| This season | 2 of 633%needs 52% to break even | 12%–65% | 19 points shortwon 33%, needs 52% | 26.3receiving yards |
| Every game | 2 of 633%needs 52% to break even | 12%–65% | 19 points shortwon 33%, needs 52% | 26.3receiving yards |
Tonight NYJ plays at home, as the favorite, after a loss, against MIA. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Tonight: MIA allows 76.2 receiving yards a game to tight ends, the 4th most of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 54.2): an easy matchup for this bet. How MIA defends tight ends
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Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receiving yards in each game against over 18.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 9.5 receiving yardsKenyon Sadiq · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +189at Kalshi | 2 of 5· last 5 games40%needs 35% to break even | -11.9Not beating its price | ||
| Under 14.5 receiving yardsKenyon Sadiq · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +119at Kalshi | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 46% to break even | -11.6Not beating its price | ||
| Under 18.5 receiving yardsKenyon Sadiq · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -112at BetRivers | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 53% to break even | -7.8Not beating its price | ||
| Under 19.5 receiving yardsKenyon Sadiq · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -137at Kalshi | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 58% to break even | -10.5Not beating its price | ||
| Under 24.5 receiving yardsKenyon Sadiq · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -183at Kalshi | 5 of 6· last 10 games, 4 skipped83%needs 65% to break even | -9.6Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scores a TDKenyon Sadiq · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +400at BetRivers | 2 of 6· last 10 games, 4 skipped33%needs 20% to break even | -6.2Not beating its price | ||
| Under 2.5 receptionsKenyon Sadiq · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -161at Kalshi | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 62% to break even | -12.7Not beating its price | ||
| Under 1.5 receptionsKenyon Sadiq · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +166at Kalshi | 2 of 5· last 5 games40%needs 38% to break even | -13.5Not beating its price | ||
| Over 2.5 receptionsKenyon Sadiq · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +150at BetRivers | 2 of 6· last 10 games, 4 skipped33%needs 40% to break even | -17.1Not beating its price | ||
| Over 1.5 receptionsKenyon Sadiq · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -192at BetOnline | 4 of 6· last 10 games, 4 skipped67%needs 66% to break even | -18.7Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.