This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 65% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 65% to break even | 14%–73% | 25 points shortwon 40%, needs 65% |
| Last 10 games | 5 of 1050%needs 65% to break even | 27%–73% | 15 points shortwon 50%, needs 65% |
| Last 15 games | 6 of 1346%needs 65% to break even | 26%–68% | 19 points shortwon 46%, needs 65% |
| This season | 3 of 650%needs 65% to break even | 22%–78% | 15 points shortwon 50%, needs 65% |
| Last season | 3 of 743%needs 65% to break even | 19%–71% | 22 points shortwon 43%, needs 65% |
| Every game |
Tonight NYJ plays at home, as the favorite, after a loss, against MIA. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Anytime TD in each game against no, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scores a TDGarrett Wilson · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 69.5 receiving yardsGarrett Wilson |
| 26%–68% |
| 19 points shortwon 46%, needs 65% |
| 1 |
| -0.5 |
| Lost |
| Wk 2 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | 0 | +0.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 10 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 6 | 0 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 5 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 4 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 | 0 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost |
| +152at Kalshi |
| 7 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped54%needs 40% to break even |
| -8.7Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +124at Kalshi |
| 7 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped54%needs 45% to break even |
| -13.7Not beating its price |
| Over 79.5 receiving yardsGarrett Wilson · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +181at Kalshi | 5 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped38%needs 36% to break even | -14.4Not beating its price |
| Under 4.5 receptionsGarrett Wilson · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +152at Kalshi | 5 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped38%needs 40% to break even | -16.3Not beating its price |
| Under 59.5 receiving yardsGarrett Wilson · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +114at Kalshi | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 47% to break even | -16.6Not beating its price |
| Over 5.5 receptionsGarrett Wilson · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +100at BetOnline | 7 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped54%needs 50% to break even | -17.6Not beating its price |
| Under 49.5 receiving yardsGarrett Wilson · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +159at Kalshi | 4 of 10· last 10 games40%needs 39% to break even | -17.9Not beating its price |
| Over 6.5 receptionsGarrett Wilson · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +173at Kalshi | 4 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped31%needs 37% to break even | -18.3Not beating its price |
| Over 62.5 receiving yardsGarrett Wilson · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -114at DraftKings | 7 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped54%needs 53% to break even | -19.9Not beating its price |
| Over 61.5 receiving yardsGarrett Wilson · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -114at FanDuel | 7 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped54%needs 53% to break even | -19.9Not beating its price |
| Under 62.5 receiving yardsGarrett Wilson · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -110at DraftKings | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 52% to break even | -20.7Not beating its price |
| Over 60.5 receiving yardsGarrett Wilson · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -120at BetRivers | 7 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped54%needs 55% to break even | -20.8Not beating its price |
| Under 61.5 receiving yardsGarrett Wilson · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -114at FanDuel | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 53% to break even | -21.3Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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