This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 61% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 61% to break even | 27%–86% | 1 points shortwon 60%, needs 61% |
| Last 10 games | 7 of 1070%needs 61% to break even | 44%–87% | 9 points betterwon 70%, needs 61% |
| Last 15 games | 8 of 1553%needs 61% to break even | 33%–72% | 7 points shortwon 53%, needs 61% |
| This season | 4 of 667%needs 61% to break even | 35%–88% | 6 points betterwon 67%, needs 61% |
| Last season | 7 of 1741%needs 61% to break even | 24%–61% | 19 points shortwon 41%, needs 61% |
| Every game | 11 of 2348%needs 61% to break even | 32%–64% | 13 points shortwon 48%, needs 61% |
Tonight ATL plays at home, as the underdog, after a loss, against SF. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
2H margin in each game against atl 2h +2.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
This team's other lines in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL +0.5 1st half spreadAtlanta Falcons · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET |
| 6 |
| +8.5 |
| Won |
| Oct 11 | -12 | -9.5 | Lost |
| Oct 5 | 4 | +6.5 | Won |
| Sep 24 | 11 | +13.5 | Won |
| Sep 20 | -14 | -11.5 | Lost |
| Sep 13 | -1 | +1.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Jan 4 | -1 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Dec 29 | -18 | -15.5 | Lost |
| Dec 21 | 7 | +9.5 | Won |
| Dec 11 | 0 | +2.5 | Won |
| Dec 7 | -28 | -25.5 | Lost |
| Nov 30 | -3 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Nov 23 | 5 | +7.5 | Won |
| Nov 16 | -14 | -11.5 | Lost |
| Nov 9 | -7 | -4.5 | Lost |
| Nov 2 | 6 | +8.5 | Won |
| Oct 26 | -10 | -7.5 | Lost |
| Oct 19 | -3 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Oct 13 | -4 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Sep 28 | 0 | +2.5 | Won |
| Sep 21 | -20 | -17.5 | Lost |
| Sep 14 | 13 | +15.5 | Won |
| Sep 7 | -3 | -0.5 | Lost |
| 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 52% to break even |
| -6.9Not beating its price |
| Under 14.5 2nd quarter totalAtlanta Falcons · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -126at Kalshi | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 56% to break even | Record is this season's | -8.3Not beating its price |
| ATL -0.5 1st half spreadAtlanta Falcons · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +134at Kalshi | 9 of 15· last 15 games60%needs 43% to break even | -8.9Not beating its price |
| ATL +2.5 1st half spreadAtlanta Falcons · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -121at Kalshi | 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 55% to break even | -9.4Not beating its price |
| Over 13.5 1st half team totalAtlanta Falcons · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +129at Kalshi | 9 of 15· last 15 games60%needs 44% to break even | -9.7Not beating its price |
| ATL +1.5 1st half spreadAtlanta Falcons · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -123at Polymarket | 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 55% to break even | -9.7Not beating its price |
| Over 7.5 1st quarter totalAtlanta Falcons · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -137at Kalshi | 6 of 6· this season100%needs 58% to break even | Record is this season's | -10.5Not beating its price |
| ATL +0.5 2nd quarter spreadAtlanta Falcons · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -126at Kalshi | 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 56% to break even | -10.8Not beating its price |
| ATL -0.5 2nd quarter spreadAtlanta Falcons · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +134at Kalshi | 9 of 15· last 15 games60%needs 43% to break even | -10.9Not beating its price |
| ATL -2.5 1st half spreadAtlanta Falcons · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +152at Kalshi | 7 of 15· last 15 games47%needs 40% to break even | -11.7Not beating its price |
| Over 13.5 1st quarter totalAtlanta Falcons · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +208at Kalshi | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 32% to break even | -12.5Not beating its price |
| Over 22.5 team totalAtlanta Falcons · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -137at Kalshi | 11 of 15· last 15 games73%needs 58% to break even | -12.5Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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