This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 42% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 42% to break even | 27%–86% | 18 points betterwon 60%, needs 42% |
| Last 10 games | 6 of 1060%needs 42% to break even | 35%–81% | 18 points betterwon 60%, needs 42% |
| Last 15 games | 9 of 1560%needs 42% to break even | 39%–78% | 18 points betterwon 60%, needs 42% |
| This season | 3 of 3100%needs 42% to break even | 53%–100% | 58 points betterwon 100%, needs 42% |
| Last season | 6 of 1540%needs 42% to break even | 22%–61% | 2 points shortwon 40%, needs 42% |
| Every game | 9 of 1850%needs 42% to break even | 32%–68% | 8 points betterwon 50%, needs 42% |
Tonight SF plays on the road, as the favorite, after a win, against ATL. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receptions in each game against under 1.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Receptions | Beat 1.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 5 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 4 | 0 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 20 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 19 | 3 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 17 | 4 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 16 | 0 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Wk 15 | 0 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Wk 13 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 9 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 8 | 3 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 7 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 6 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 5 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 4 | 3 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 3 | 3 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 2 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 1 | 3 | -1.5 | Lost | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 receptionsBrandin Cooks · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETWithout Samuel (WR) | -199at Kalshi | 9 of 15· last season60%needs 67% to break even | Record is last season's | -36.2Not beating its price | |
| Over 2.5 receptionsBrandin Cooks · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETWithout Samuel (WR) | +146at Kalshi | 6 of 15· last season40%needs 41% to break even | Record is last season's | -23.9Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.