This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 43% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 0 of 50%needs 43% to break even | 0%–35% | 43 points shortwon 0%, needs 43% |
| Last 10 games | 4 of 1040%needs 43% to break even | 19%–65% | 3 points shortwon 40%, needs 43% |
| Last 15 games | 5 of 1533%needs 43% to break even | 17%–54% | 9 points shortwon 33%, needs 43% |
| This season | 1 of 617%needs 43% to break even | 4%–50% | 26 points shortwon 17%, needs 43% |
| Last season | 9 of 1753%needs 43% to break even | 34%–71% | 10 points betterwon 53%, needs 43% |
| Every game |
Tonight ATL plays at home, as the underdog, after a loss, against SF. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receptions in each game against over 4.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Receptions | Beat 4.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | ||||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 receptionsBijan Robinson |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 144.5 rush + rec yardsBijan Robinson |
| 28%–60% |
| 1 points betterwon 43%, needs 43% |
| 2 |
| -2.5 |
| Lost |
| Wk 5 | 4 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 4 | 1 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 | 2 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 | 3 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | 8 | +3.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 18 | 3 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 17 | 5 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 16 | 7 | +2.5 | Won |
| Wk 15 | 8 | +3.5 | Won |
| Wk 14 | 2 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Wk 13 | 5 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 12 | 2 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Wk 11 | 4 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 10 | 2 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Wk 9 | 8 | +3.5 | Won |
| Wk 8 | 3 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 7 | 6 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 6 | 6 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 4 | 4 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 | 5 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | 3 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | 6 | +1.5 | Won |
| +128at FanDuel |
| 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 44% to break even |
| -11.1Not beating its price |
| Under 4.5 receptionsBijan Robinson · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -183at Kalshi | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 65% to break even | -17.7Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +189at Kalshi |
| 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 35% to break even |
| -7.8Not beating its price |
| Doesn't score a TDBijan Robinson · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +181at Kalshi | 8 of 17· last season47%needs 36% to break even | Record is last season's | -8.6Not beating its price |
| Under 17.5 rush attemptsBijan Robinson · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +109at Kalshi | 10 of 17· last season59%needs 48% to break even | Record is last season's | -15.3Not beating its price |
| Over 82.5 rushing yardsBijan Robinson · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -114at BetRivers | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 53% to break even | -15.5Not beating its price |
| Under 89.5 rushing yardsBijan Robinson · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -131at Kalshi | 11 of 17· last season65%needs 57% to break even | Record is last season's | -16.1Not beating its price |
| Under 24.5 receiving yardsBijan Robinson · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +109at Kalshi | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 48% to break even | -17.0Not beating its price |
| Over 109.5 rushing yardsBijan Robinson · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +198at Kalshi | 2 of 5· last 5 games40%needs 34% to break even | -17.5Not beating its price |
| Under 25.5 receiving yardsBijan Robinson · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -105at Fanatics | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 51% to break even | -18.9Not beating its price |
| Over 83.5 rushing yardsBijan Robinson · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -110at DraftKings | 9 of 15· last 15 games60%needs 52% to break even | -19.2Not beating its price |
| Over 79.5 rushing yardsBijan Robinson · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -137at Kalshi | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 58% to break even | -19.2Not beating its price |
| Under 99.5 rushing yardsBijan Robinson · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -191at Kalshi | 12 of 17· last season71%needs 66% to break even | Record is last season's | -19.7Not beating its price |
| Under 26.5 receiving yardsBijan Robinson · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -110at DraftKings | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 52% to break even | -19.9Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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