This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 40% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 40% to break even | 14%–73% | evenwon 40%, needs 40% | 2.4extra points made |
| Last 10 games | 2 of 1020%needs 40% to break even | 7%–46% | 20 points shortwon 20%, needs 40% | 1.7extra points made |
| Last 15 games | 4 of 1527%needs 40% to break even | 13%–48% | 14 points shortwon 27%, needs 40% | 1.9extra points made |
| This season | 2 of 633%needs 40% to break even | 12%–65% | 7 points shortwon 33%, needs 40% | 2.2extra points made |
| Last season | 3 of 1619% |
Tonight ATL plays at home, as the underdog, after a loss, against SF. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 2 of 12 at home.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Extra points made in each game against over 2.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Extra points made | Beat 2.5 by |
|---|
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
This player's other props in the game.
| 8%–39% |
| 22 points shortwon 19%, needs 40% |
| 1.4extra points made |
| Every game | 5 of 2223%needs 40% to break even | 12%–40% | 18 points shortwon 23%, needs 40% | 1.6extra points made |
| Bet |
|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 5 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | 6 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Wk 3 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 2 | 0 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 1 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 17 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 16 | 0 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 15 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 14 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 13 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 12 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 11 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 10 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 8 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 7 | 0 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 6 | 0 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 5 | 0 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 3 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 2 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 1 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| -190at DraftKings |
| 13 of 16· last season81%needs 66% to break even10 of 12 at home |
| Record is last season's |
| -14.6Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +110at BetRivers |
| 7 of 15· last 15 games47%needs 48% to break even5 of 12 at home |
| -18.9Not beating its price |
| Over 1.5 field goals madeNick Folk · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -123at DraftKings | 11 of 16· last season69%needs 55% to break even7 of 12 at home | Record is last season's | -20.0Not beating its price |
| Under 1.5 field goals madeNick Folk · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +100at BetMGM | 7 of 15· last 15 games47%needs 50% to break even5 of 12 at home | -21.6Not beating its price |
| Under 7.5 kicking pointsNick Folk · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -136at DraftKings | 9 of 16· last season56%needs 58% to break even7 of 12 at home | Record is last season's | -23.0Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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