This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 52% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 52% to break even | 14%–73% | 12 points shortwon 40%, needs 52% | 30receiving yards |
| Last 10 games | 4 of 1040%needs 52% to break even | 19%–65% | 12 points shortwon 40%, needs 52% | 33.1receiving yards |
| Last 15 games | 5 of 1533%needs 52% to break even | 17%–54% | 19 points shortwon 33%, needs 52% | 33receiving yards |
| This season | 2 of 540%needs 52% to break even | 14%–73% | 12 points shortwon 40%, needs 52% | 30receiving yards |
| Last season | 6 of 1735% |
Tonight CLE plays on the road, as the favorite, after a win, against TEN. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 4 of 11 on the road. Tonight: TEN allows 175.3 receiving yards a game to wide receivers, the 7th most of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 150.3): a tough matchup for this bet. How TEN defends wide receivers
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receiving yards in each game against under 20.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Receiving yards | Beat 20.5 by |
|---|
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
This player's other props in the game.
| 19%–55% |
| 17 points shortwon 35%, needs 52% |
| 35.4receiving yards |
| Every game | 8 of 2236%needs 52% to break even | 22%–54% | 16 points shortwon 36%, needs 52% | 34.2receiving yards |
| Bet |
|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 69 | -48.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 5 | 19 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Wk 4 | 36 | -15.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 2 | 0 | +20.5 | Won | |
| Wk 1 | 26 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 18 | 17 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Wk 17 | 54 | -33.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 16 | 12 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Wk 15 | 22 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 14 | 76 | -55.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 13 | 26 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 12 | 39 | -18.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 11 | 21 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 10 | 78 | -57.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 8 | 0 | +20.5 | Won | |
| Wk 7 | 17 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Wk 6 | 43 | -22.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 5 | 15 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Wk 4 | 48 | -27.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 3 | 17 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Wk 2 | 51 | -30.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 1 | 66 | -45.5 | Lost | |
| -183at Kalshi |
| 15 of 17· last season88%needs 65% to break even9 of 11 on the road |
| Record is last season's |
| -5.2Not beating its price |
| Over 19.5 receiving yardsJerry Jeudy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -116at Kalshi | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 54% to break even7 of 11 on the road | -11.7Not beating its price |
| Over 20.5 receiving yardsJerry Jeudy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -114at DraftKings | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 53% to break even7 of 11 on the road | -11.4Not beating its price |
| Over 21.5 receiving yardsJerry Jeudy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -115at BetMGM | 10 of 17· last season59%needs 53% to break even7 of 11 on the road | Record is last season's | -14.2Not beating its price |
| Over 24.5 receiving yardsJerry Jeudy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +119at Kalshi | 9 of 17· last season53%needs 46% to break even6 of 11 on the road | Record is last season's | -12.1Not beating its price |
| Over 29.5 receiving yardsJerry Jeudy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +160at DraftKings | 8 of 17· last season47%needs 38% to break even5 of 11 on the road | Record is last season's | -13.3Not beating its price |
| Over 30.5 receiving yardsJerry Jeudy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +125at BetOnline | 8 of 17· last season47%needs 44% to break even5 of 11 on the road | Record is last season's | -18.2Not beating its price |
| Over 40.5 receiving yardsJerry Jeudy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +176at BetOnline | 7 of 17· last season41%needs 36% to break even4 of 11 on the road | Record is last season's | -17.5Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +178at FanDuel |
| 10 of 17· last season59%needs 36% to break even5 of 11 on the road |
| Record is last season's |
| 0.0Slight |
| Over 1.5 receptionsJerry Jeudy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -161at Kalshi | 9 of 10· last 10 games90%needs 62% to break even8 of 11 on the road | -2.2Not beating its price |
| Scores a TDJerry Jeudy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +625at Kalshi | 2 of 15· last 15 games13%needs 14% to break even1 of 11 on the road | -8.8Not beating its price |
| Under 1.5 receptionsJerry Jeudy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +134at DraftKings | 3 of 15· last 15 games20%needs 43% to break even3 of 11 on the road | -30.1Not beating its price |
| Under 2.5 receptionsJerry Jeudy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -190at BetMGM | 7 of 17· last season41%needs 66% to break even6 of 11 on the road | Record is last season's | -36.6Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.
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