This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 38% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 38% to break even | 14%–73% | 2 points betterwon 40%, needs 38% | 30receiving yards |
| Last 10 games | 4 of 1040%needs 38% to break even | 19%–65% | 2 points betterwon 40%, needs 38% | 33.1receiving yards |
| Last 15 games | 6 of 1540%needs 38% to break even | 22%–61% | 2 points betterwon 40%, needs 38% | 33receiving yards |
| This season | 2 of 540%needs 38% to break even | 14%–73% | 2 points betterwon 40%, needs 38% | 30receiving yards |
| Last season | 8 of 1747%needs 38% to break even | 29%–66% | 9 points betterwon 47%, needs 38% | 35.4receiving yards |
| Every game | 10 of 2245%needs 38% to break even | 29%–62% | 7 points betterwon 45%, needs 38% | 34.2receiving yards |
Tonight CLE plays on the road, as the favorite, after a win, against TEN. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 5 of 11 on the road. Tonight: TEN allows 175.3 receiving yards a game to wide receivers, the 7th most of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 150.3): an easy matchup for this bet. How TEN defends wide receivers
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receiving yards in each game against over 29.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Receiving yards | Beat 29.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 69 | +39.5 | Won | |
| Wk 5 | 19 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | 36 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Wk 2 | 0 | -29.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 1 | 26 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 18 | 17 | -12.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 17 | 54 | +24.5 | Won | |
| Wk 16 | 12 | -17.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 15 | 22 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 14 | 76 | +46.5 | Won | |
| Wk 13 | 26 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 12 | 39 | +9.5 | Won | |
| Wk 11 | 21 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 10 | 78 | +48.5 | Won | |
| Wk 8 | 0 | -29.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 7 | 17 | -12.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 6 | 43 | +13.5 | Won | |
| Wk 5 | 15 | -14.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | 48 | +18.5 | Won | |
| Wk 3 | 17 | -12.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 2 | 51 | +21.5 | Won | |
| Wk 1 | 66 | +36.5 | Won | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 14.5 receiving yardsJerry Jeudy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +134at Kalshi | 3 of 15· last 15 games20%needs 43% to break even2 of 11 on the road | -30.0Not beating its price | ||
| Under 19.5 receiving yardsJerry Jeudy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -112at Kalshi | 6 of 17· last season35%needs 53% to break even4 of 11 on the road | Record is last season's | -28.4Not beating its price | |
| Under 20.5 receiving yardsJerry Jeudy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -110at DraftKings | 6 of 17· last season35%needs 52% to break even4 of 11 on the road | Record is last season's | -28.1Not beating its price | |
| Under 21.5 receiving yardsJerry Jeudy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -115at BetMGM | 7 of 17· last season41%needs 53% to break even4 of 11 on the road | Record is last season's | -26.8Not beating its price | |
| Under 24.5 receiving yardsJerry Jeudy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -154at Kalshi | 8 of 17· last season47%needs 61% to break even5 of 11 on the road | Record is last season's | -28.7Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 receptionsJerry Jeudy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +178at FanDuel | 10 of 17· last season59%needs 36% to break even5 of 11 on the road | Record is last season's | 0.0Slight | |
| Over 1.5 receptionsJerry Jeudy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -161at Kalshi | 9 of 10· last 10 games90%needs 62% to break even8 of 11 on the road | -2.2Not beating its price | ||
| Scores a TDJerry Jeudy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +625at Kalshi | 2 of 15· last 15 games13%needs 14% to break even1 of 11 on the road | -8.8Not beating its price | ||
| Under 1.5 receptionsJerry Jeudy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +134at DraftKings | 3 of 15· last 15 games20%needs 43% to break even3 of 11 on the road | -30.1Not beating its price | ||
| Under 2.5 receptionsJerry Jeudy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -190at BetMGM | 7 of 17· last season41%needs 66% to break even6 of 11 on the road | Record is last season's | -36.6Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.