This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 49% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 520%needs 49% to break even | 5%–56% | 29 points shortwon 20%, needs 49% | 4.6receiving yards |
| Last 10 games | 4 of 1040%needs 49% to break even | 19%–65% | 9 points shortwon 40%, needs 49% | 11.4receiving yards |
| Last 15 games | 7 of 1547%needs 49% to break even | 28%–67% | 2 points shortwon 47%, needs 49% | 18.9receiving yards |
| This season | 1 of 617%needs 49% to break even | 4%–50% | 32 points shortwon 17%, needs 49% | 5receiving yards |
| Last season | 8 of 1362%needs 49% to break even | 39%–80% | 13 points betterwon 62%, needs 49% | 22receiving yards |
| Every game | 9 of 1947%needs 49% to break even | 30%–65% | 1 points shortwon 47%, needs 49% | 16.6receiving yards |
Tonight TEN plays at home, as the underdog, after a win, against CLE. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 3 of 8 at home. Tonight: CLE allows 52.8 receiving yards a game to tight ends, the 16th fewest of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 54.2). How CLE defends tight ends
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Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receiving yards in each game against over 9.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Receiving yards | Beat 9.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 0 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 5 | 5 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | 2 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 3 | 16 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Wk 2 | 0 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 1 | 7 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 18 | 38 | +28.5 | Won | |
| Wk 17 | 11 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Wk 15 | 35 | +25.5 | Won | |
| Wk 12 | 0 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 11 | 0 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 10 | 8 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 8 | 21 | +11.5 | Won | |
| Wk 7 | 88 | +78.5 | Won | |
| Wk 5 | 52 | +42.5 | Won | |
| Wk 4 | 13 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Wk 3 | 6 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 2 | 0 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 1 | 14 | +4.5 | Won | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scores a TDDaniel Bellinger · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +1241at Kalshi | 2 of 13· last season15%needs 7% to break even1 of 8 at home | Record is last season's | -3.8Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.