This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 31% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 520%needs 31% to break even | 5%–56% | 11 points shortwon 20%, needs 31% | 1.2passing touchdowns |
| Last 10 games | 1 of 617%needs 31% to break even | 4%–50% | 15 points shortwon 17%, needs 31% | 1.2passing touchdowns |
| Last 15 games | 1 of 617%needs 31% to break even | 4%–50% | 15 points shortwon 17%, needs 31% | 1.2passing touchdowns |
| This season | 1 of 617%needs 31% to break even | 4%–50% | 15 points shortwon 17%, needs 31% | 1.2passing touchdowns |
| Every game | 1 of 6 |
Tonight CLE plays on the road, as the favorite, after a win, against TEN. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Tonight: TEN allows 1 passing touchdowns a game to quarterbacks, the 6th fewest of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 1.5): an easy matchup for this bet. How TEN defends quarterbacks
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Passing TDs in each game against under 0.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
This player's other props in the game.
| 4%–50% |
| 15 points shortwon 17%, needs 31% |
| 1.2passing touchdowns |
| Lost |
| Wk 2 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost |
| -245at BetRivers |
| 5 of 6· last 10 games, 4 skipped83%needs 71% to break even |
| -13.1Not beating its price |
| Over 1.5 passing TDsDeshaun Watson · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +165at BetMGM | 2 of 5· last 5 games40%needs 38% to break even | -13.6Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +198at Kalshi |
| 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 34% to break even |
| -5.0Not beating its price |
| Under 0.5 interceptions thrownDeshaun Watson · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -103at DraftKings | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 51% to break even | -6.7Not beating its price |
| Over 29.5 pass attemptsDeshaun Watson · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -115at BetOnline | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 53% to break even | -8.2Not beating its price |
| Under 18.5 completionsDeshaun Watson · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -107at DraftKings | 4 of 6· last 10 games, 4 skipped67%needs 52% to break even | -11.0Not beating its price |
| Scores a TDDeshaun Watson · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +380at Fanatics | 0 of 5· last 5 games0%needs 21% to break even | -11.4Not beating its price |
| Under 208.5 passing yardsDeshaun Watson · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -112at DraftKings | 4 of 6· last 10 games, 4 skipped67%needs 53% to break even | -11.6Not beating its price |
| Under 199.5 passing yardsDeshaun Watson · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +119at Kalshi | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 46% to break even | -11.6Not beating its price |
| Under 243.5 pass + rush yardsDeshaun Watson · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -114at FanDuel | 4 of 6· last 10 games, 4 skipped67%needs 53% to break even | -11.9Not beating its price |
| Over 39.5 rushing yardsDeshaun Watson · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +189at Kalshi | 2 of 5· last 5 games40%needs 35% to break even | -11.9Not beating its price |
| Under 206.5 passing yardsDeshaun Watson · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -115at BetMGM | 4 of 6· last 10 games, 4 skipped67%needs 53% to break even | -12.0Not beating its price |
| Under 205.5 passing yardsDeshaun Watson · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -115at Fanatics | 4 of 6· last 10 games, 4 skipped67%needs 53% to break even | -12.0Not beating its price |
| Under 30.5 pass attemptsDeshaun Watson · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -120at BetMGM | 4 of 6· last 10 games, 4 skipped67%needs 55% to break even | -12.6Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.
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