This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 53% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 53% to break even | 27%–86% | 7 points betterwon 60%, needs 53% | 225.4passing and rushing yards |
| Last 10 games | 4 of 667%needs 53% to break even | 35%–88% | 13 points betterwon 67%, needs 53% | 228.3passing and rushing yards |
| Last 15 games | 4 of 667%needs 53% to break even | 35%–88% | 13 points betterwon 67%, needs 53% | 228.3passing and rushing yards |
| This season | 4 of 667%needs 53% to break even | 35%–88% | 13 points betterwon 67%, needs 53% | 228.3passing and rushing yards |
Tonight CLE plays on the road, as the favorite, after a win, against TEN. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Tonight: TEN allows 253.3 passing and rushing yards a game to quarterbacks, the 16th fewest of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 253.4). How TEN defends quarterbacks
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Pass + rush yards in each game against under 243.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
This player's other props in the game.
| Every game | 4 of 667%needs 53% to break even | 35%–88% | 13 points betterwon 67%, needs 53% | 228.3passing and rushing yards |
| 189 |
| +54.5 |
| Won |
| Wk 2 | 260 | -16.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | 243 | +0.5 | Won |
| -192at FanDuel |
| 3 of 6· last 10 games, 4 skipped50%needs 66% to break even |
| -25.6Not beating its price |
| Over 229.5 pass + rush yardsDeshaun Watson · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -157at DraftKings | 3 of 6· last 10 games, 4 skipped50%needs 61% to break even | -23.1Not beating its price |
| Over 239.5 pass + rush yardsDeshaun Watson · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -115at BetMGM | 3 of 6· last 10 games, 4 skipped50%needs 53% to break even | -18.9Not beating its price |
| Over 242.5 pass + rush yardsDeshaun Watson · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -113at DraftKings | 3 of 6· last 10 games, 4 skipped50%needs 53% to break even | -18.7Not beating its price |
| Over 243.5 pass + rush yardsDeshaun Watson · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -114at FanDuel | 2 of 5· last 5 games40%needs 53% to break even | -22.1Not beating its price |
| Over 246.5 pass + rush yardsDeshaun Watson · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -103at BetRivers | 2 of 5· last 5 games40%needs 51% to break even | -20.7Not beating its price |
| Over 249.5 pass + rush yardsDeshaun Watson · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +105at DraftKings | 2 of 5· last 5 games40%needs 49% to break even | -19.6Not beating its price |
| Over 259.5 pass + rush yardsDeshaun Watson · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +134at DraftKings | 2 of 5· last 5 games40%needs 43% to break even | -16.3Not beating its price |
| Over 269.5 pass + rush yardsDeshaun Watson · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +169at DraftKings | 1 of 5· last 5 games20%needs 37% to break even | -18.0Not beating its price |
| Over 274.5 pass + rush yardsDeshaun Watson · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +195at BetMGM | 1 of 5· last 5 games20%needs 34% to break even | -16.2Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +198at Kalshi |
| 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 34% to break even |
| -5.0Not beating its price |
| Under 0.5 interceptions thrownDeshaun Watson · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -103at DraftKings | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 51% to break even | -6.7Not beating its price |
| Over 29.5 pass attemptsDeshaun Watson · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -115at BetOnline | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 53% to break even | -8.2Not beating its price |
| Under 18.5 completionsDeshaun Watson · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -107at DraftKings | 4 of 6· last 10 games, 4 skipped67%needs 52% to break even | -11.0Not beating its price |
| Scores a TDDeshaun Watson · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +381at Polymarket | 0 of 5· last 5 games0%needs 21% to break even | -11.3Not beating its price |
| Under 208.5 passing yardsDeshaun Watson · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -112at DraftKings | 4 of 6· last 10 games, 4 skipped67%needs 53% to break even | -11.6Not beating its price |
| Under 199.5 passing yardsDeshaun Watson · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +119at Kalshi | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 46% to break even | -11.6Not beating its price |
| Over 39.5 rushing yardsDeshaun Watson · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +189at Kalshi | 2 of 5· last 5 games40%needs 35% to break even | -11.9Not beating its price |
| Under 206.5 passing yardsDeshaun Watson · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -115at BetMGM | 4 of 6· last 10 games, 4 skipped67%needs 53% to break even | -12.0Not beating its price |
| Under 205.5 passing yardsDeshaun Watson · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -115at Fanatics | 4 of 6· last 10 games, 4 skipped67%needs 53% to break even | -12.0Not beating its price |
| Under 30.5 pass attemptsDeshaun Watson · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -120at BetMGM | 4 of 6· last 10 games, 4 skipped67%needs 55% to break even | -12.6Not beating its price |
| Over 0.5 passing TDsDeshaun Watson · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -245at BetRivers | 5 of 6· last 10 games, 4 skipped83%needs 71% to break even | -13.1Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.
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