This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 36% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 36% to break even | 27%–86% | 24 points betterwon 60%, needs 36% |
| Last 10 games | 5 of 1050%needs 36% to break even | 27%–73% | 14 points betterwon 50%, needs 36% |
| Last 15 games | 6 of 1540%needs 36% to break even | 22%–61% | 4 points betterwon 40%, needs 36% |
| This season | 3 of 560%needs 36% to break even | 27%–86% | 24 points betterwon 60%, needs 36% |
| Last season | 4 of 1724%needs 36% to break even | 11%–43% | 12 points shortwon 24%, needs 36% |
| Every game | 7 of 2232%needs 36% to break even | 18%–49% | 4 points shortwon 32%, needs 36% |
Tonight CIN plays on the road, as the underdog, after a win, against BAL. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Margin in each game against cin -3.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Margin | Beat 3.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 11 | 7 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Oct 4 | -5 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 27 | -3 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 20 | 14 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Sep 13 | 6 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| Jan 4 | -2 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 28 | 23 | +19.5 | Won | |
| Dec 21 | 24 | +20.5 | Won | |
| Dec 14 | -24 | -27.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 7 | -5 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 27 | 18 | +14.5 | Won | |
| Nov 23 | -6 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 16 | -22 | -25.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 2 | -5 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 26 | -1 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 16 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 12 | -9 | -12.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 5 | -13 | -16.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 29 | -25 | -28.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 21 | -38 | -41.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 14 | 4 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 7 | 1 | -2.5 | Lost | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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This team's other lines in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.