This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 37% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 37% to break even | 27%–86% | 23 points betterwon 60%, needs 37% |
| Last 10 games | 5 of 1050%needs 37% to break even | 27%–73% | 13 points betterwon 50%, needs 37% |
| Last 15 games | 7 of 1547%needs 37% to break even | 28%–67% | 10 points betterwon 47%, needs 37% |
| This season | 3 of 560%needs 37% to break even | 27%–86% | 23 points betterwon 60%, needs 37% |
| Last season | 6 of 1735%needs 37% to break even | 19%–55% | 1 points shortwon 35%, needs 37% |
| Every game | 9 of 2241%needs 37% to break even | 26%–58% | 4 points betterwon 41%, needs 37% |
Tonight CIN plays on the road, as the underdog, after a win, against BAL. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
1H margin in each game against cin 1h -3.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | 1H margin | Beat 3.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 11 | 14 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Oct 4 | -10 | -13.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 27 | 0 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 20 | 4 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 13 | 14 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| Jan 4 | -2 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 28 | 16 | +12.5 | Won | |
| Dec 21 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 14 | -14 | -17.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 7 | 10 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Nov 27 | 5 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Nov 23 | -4 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 16 | -4 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 2 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 26 | 11 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Oct 16 | 7 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Oct 12 | -10 | -13.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 5 | -11 | -14.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 29 | -18 | -21.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 21 | -31 | -34.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 14 | -7 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 7 | 4 | +0.5 | Won | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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This team's other lines in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.