This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 59% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 59% to break even | 14%–73% | 19 points shortwon 40%, needs 59% |
| Last 10 games | 3 of 1030%needs 59% to break even | 13%–56% | 29 points shortwon 30%, needs 59% |
| Last 15 games | 4 of 1527%needs 59% to break even | 13%–48% | 32 points shortwon 27%, needs 59% |
| This season | 2 of 540%needs 59% to break even | 14%–73% | 19 points shortwon 40%, needs 59% |
| Last season | 8 of 1747%needs 59% to break even | 29%–66% | 12 points shortwon 47%, needs 59% |
| Every game |
Tonight CIN plays on the road, as the underdog, after a win, against BAL. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Rushing yards in each game against under 49.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Rushing yards | Beat 49.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 5 | 39 | |||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 48.5 rushing yardsChase Brown · |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 29.5 receiving yardsChase Brown |
| 29%–62% |
| 13 points shortwon 45%, needs 59% |
| +10.5 |
| Won |
| Wk 4 | 10 | +39.5 | Won |
| Wk 3 | 61 | -11.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 | 80 | -30.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | 56 | -6.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 18 | 72 | -22.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 17 | 101 | -51.5 | Lost |
| Wk 16 | 66 | -16.5 | Lost |
| Wk 15 | 53 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Wk 14 | 23 | +26.5 | Won |
| Wk 13 | 78 | -28.5 | Lost |
| Wk 12 | 107 | -57.5 | Lost |
| Wk 11 | 99 | -49.5 | Lost |
| Wk 9 | 37 | +12.5 | Won |
| Wk 8 | 73 | -23.5 | Lost |
| Wk 7 | 108 | -58.5 | Lost |
| Wk 6 | 42 | +7.5 | Won |
| Wk 5 | 27 | +22.5 | Won |
| Wk 4 | 40 | +9.5 | Won |
| Wk 3 | 3 | +46.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | 47 | +2.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 43 | +6.5 | Won |
| -111at DraftKings |
| 11 of 15· last 15 games73%needs 53% to break even |
| -10.4Not beating its price |
| Over 49.5 rushing yardsChase Brown · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +109at Kalshi | 11 of 15· last 15 games73%needs 48% to break even | -6.5Not beating its price |
| Over 50.5 rushing yardsChase Brown · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -112at BetRivers | 11 of 15· last 15 games73%needs 53% to break even | -10.6Not beating its price |
| Over 51.5 rushing yardsChase Brown · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -115at BetMGM | 11 of 15· last 15 games73%needs 53% to break even | -11.1Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +198at Kalshi |
| 7 of 15· last 15 games47%needs 34% to break even |
| -10.9Not beating its price |
| Over 19.5 receiving yardsChase Brown · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -114at FanDuel | 11 of 15· last 15 games73%needs 53% to break even | -11.4Not beating its price |
| Over 20.5 receiving yardsChase Brown · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -116at DraftKings | 11 of 15· last 15 games73%needs 54% to break even | -11.8Not beating its price |
| Doesn't score a TDChase Brown · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -116at Kalshi | 11 of 17· last season65%needs 54% to break even | Record is last season's | -12.2Not beating its price |
| Over 12.5 rush attemptsChase Brown · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -131at Kalshi | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 57% to break even | -13.9Not beating its price |
| Over 24.5 receiving yardsChase Brown · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +129at Kalshi | 8 of 15· last 15 games53%needs 44% to break even | -16.8Not beating its price |
| Under 3.5 receptionsChase Brown · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -114at FanDuel | 9 of 17· last season53%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -19.5Not beating its price |
| Over 3.5 receptionsChase Brown · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -107at Kalshi | 8 of 15· last 15 games53%needs 52% to break even | -20.3Not beating its price |
| Under 24.5 receiving yardsChase Brown · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -175at Kalshi | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 64% to break even | -23.7Not beating its price |
| Scores a TDChase Brown · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -103at Kalshi | 5 of 10· last 10 games50%needs 51% to break even | -25.6Not beating its price |
| Under 12.5 rush attemptsChase Brown · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -107at Kalshi | 9 of 17· last season53%needs 52% to break even | Record is last season's | -26.6Not beating its price |
| Under 20.5 receiving yardsChase Brown · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -109at DraftKings | 7 of 17· last season41%needs 52% to break even | Record is last season's | -27.7Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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