This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 52% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 52% to break even | 14%–73% | 12 points shortwon 40%, needs 52% |
| Last 10 games | 4 of 1040%needs 52% to break even | 19%–65% | 12 points shortwon 40%, needs 52% |
| Last 15 games | 4 of 1527%needs 52% to break even | 13%–48% | 25 points shortwon 27%, needs 52% |
| This season | 2 of 540%needs 52% to break even | 14%–73% | 12 points shortwon 40%, needs 52% |
| Last season | 7 of 1741%needs 52% to break even | 24%–61% | 11 points shortwon 41%, needs 52% |
| Every game |
Tonight CIN plays on the road, as the underdog, after a win, against BAL. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receiving yards in each game against under 20.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 19.5 receiving yardsChase Brown |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 49.5 rushing yardsChase Brown |
| 26%–58% |
| 11 points shortwon 41%, needs 52% |
| 21 |
| -0.5 |
| Lost |
| Wk 4 | 71 | -50.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 | 8 | +12.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | 2 | +18.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 22 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 18 | 18 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Wk 17 | 40 | -19.5 | Lost |
| Wk 16 | 43 | -22.5 | Lost |
| Wk 15 | 37 | -16.5 | Lost |
| Wk 14 | 12 | +8.5 | Won |
| Wk 13 | 35 | -14.5 | Lost |
| Wk 12 | 23 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Wk 11 | 28 | -7.5 | Lost |
| Wk 9 | 75 | -54.5 | Lost |
| Wk 8 | 32 | -11.5 | Lost |
| Wk 7 | -8 | +28.5 | Won |
| Wk 6 | 7 | +13.5 | Won |
| Wk 5 | 21 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 4 | 31 | -10.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 | 17 | +3.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | 18 | +2.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 8 | +12.5 | Won |
| -114at FanDuel |
| 11 of 15· last 15 games73%needs 53% to break even |
| -11.4Not beating its price |
| Over 20.5 receiving yardsChase Brown · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -116at DraftKings | 11 of 15· last 15 games73%needs 54% to break even | -11.8Not beating its price |
| Over 24.5 receiving yardsChase Brown · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +129at Kalshi | 8 of 15· last 15 games53%needs 44% to break even | -16.8Not beating its price |
| Over 29.5 receiving yardsChase Brown · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +198at Kalshi | 7 of 15· last 15 games47%needs 34% to break even | -10.9Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +109at Kalshi |
| 11 of 15· last 15 games73%needs 48% to break even |
| -6.5Not beating its price |
| Over 48.5 rushing yardsChase Brown · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -111at DraftKings | 11 of 15· last 15 games73%needs 53% to break even | -10.4Not beating its price |
| Over 50.5 rushing yardsChase Brown · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -112at BetRivers | 11 of 15· last 15 games73%needs 53% to break even | -10.6Not beating its price |
| Over 51.5 rushing yardsChase Brown · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -115at BetMGM | 11 of 15· last 15 games73%needs 53% to break even | -11.1Not beating its price |
| Doesn't score a TDChase Brown · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -116at Kalshi | 11 of 17· last season65%needs 54% to break even | Record is last season's | -12.2Not beating its price |
| Over 12.5 rush attemptsChase Brown · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -131at Kalshi | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 57% to break even | -13.9Not beating its price |
| Under 3.5 receptionsChase Brown · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -114at FanDuel | 9 of 17· last season53%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -19.5Not beating its price |
| Over 3.5 receptionsChase Brown · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -107at Kalshi | 8 of 15· last 15 games53%needs 52% to break even | -20.3Not beating its price |
| Scores a TDChase Brown · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -103at Kalshi | 5 of 10· last 10 games50%needs 51% to break even | -25.6Not beating its price |
| Under 12.5 rush attemptsChase Brown · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -107at Kalshi | 9 of 17· last season53%needs 52% to break even | Record is last season's | -26.6Not beating its price |
| Under 48.5 rushing yardsChase Brown · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -113at DraftKings | 8 of 17· last season47%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -28.5Not beating its price |
| Under 50.5 rushing yardsChase Brown · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -114at FanDuel | 8 of 17· last season47%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -28.7Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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