This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 59% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 59% to break even | 14%–73% | 19 points shortwon 40%, needs 59% | 2.8extra points made |
| Last 10 games | 4 of 1040%needs 59% to break even | 19%–65% | 19 points shortwon 40%, needs 59% | 2.8extra points made |
| Last 15 games | 7 of 1547%needs 59% to break even | 28%–67% | 12 points shortwon 47%, needs 59% | 2.7extra points made |
| This season | 2 of 540%needs 59% to break even | 14%–73% | 19 points shortwon 40%, needs 59% | 2.8extra points made |
| Last season | 9 of 1753% |
Tonight CIN plays on the road, as the favorite, after a win, against BAL. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 7 of 11 on the road.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Extra points made in each game against under 2.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Extra points made | Beat 2.5 by |
|---|
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
This player's other props in the game.
| 34%–71% |
| 6 points shortwon 53%, needs 59% |
| 2.4extra points made |
| Every game | 11 of 2250%needs 59% to break even | 33%–67% | 9 points shortwon 50%, needs 59% | 2.5extra points made |
| Bet |
|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 5 | 4 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 3 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 2 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 1 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 18 | 0 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Wk 17 | 4 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 16 | 6 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 15 | 0 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Wk 14 | 4 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 13 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 12 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 11 | 0 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Wk 9 | 4 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 8 | 5 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 7 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 6 | 1 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Wk 5 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | 0 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Wk 3 | 1 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Wk 2 | 4 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 1 | 2 | +0.5 | Won | |
| +113at DraftKings |
| 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 47% to break even4 of 11 on the road |
| -12.8Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +129at DraftKings |
| 12 of 17· last season71%needs 44% to break even7 of 11 on the road |
| Record is last season's |
| -4.7Not beating its price |
| Under 8.5 kicking pointsEvan McPherson · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -137at DraftKings | 13 of 17· last season76%needs 58% to break even8 of 11 on the road | Record is last season's | -10.2Not beating its price |
| Over 8.5 kicking pointsEvan McPherson · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +107at DraftKings | 5 of 15· last 15 games33%needs 48% to break even3 of 11 on the road | -28.3Not beating its price |
| Over 1.5 field goals madeEvan McPherson · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -166at DraftKings | 7 of 15· last 15 games47%needs 62% to break even4 of 11 on the road | -34.6Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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