This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 58% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 58% to break even | 27%–86% | 2 points betterwon 60%, needs 58% | 8.8kicking points |
| Last 10 games | 7 of 1070%needs 58% to break even | 44%–87% | 12 points betterwon 70%, needs 58% | 6.4kicking points |
| Last 15 games | 10 of 1567%needs 58% to break even | 46%–83% | 9 points betterwon 67%, needs 58% | 7.7kicking points |
| This season | 3 of 560%needs 58% to break even | 27%–86% | 2 points betterwon 60%, needs 58% | 8.8kicking points |
| Last season | 13 of 1776%needs 58% to break even | 57%–89% | 19 points betterwon 76%, needs 58% | 6.8kicking points |
| Every game | 16 of 2273%needs 58% to break even | 55%–85% | 15 points betterwon 73%, needs 58% | 7.3kicking points |
Tonight CIN plays on the road, as the favorite, after a win, against BAL. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 8 of 11 on the road.
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Kicking points in each game against under 8.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Kicking points | Beat 8.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 5 | 7 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Wk 4 | 5 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Wk 3 | 9 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 2 | 8 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 1 | 15 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 18 | 0 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Wk 17 | 7 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Wk 16 | 9 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 15 | 0 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Wk 14 | 4 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Wk 13 | 20 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 12 | 8 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 11 | 6 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Wk 9 | 10 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 8 | 8 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 7 | 15 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 6 | 4 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Wk 5 | 6 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Wk 4 | 3 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Wk 3 | 4 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Wk 2 | 7 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Wk 1 | 5 | +3.5 | Won | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 8.5 kicking pointsEvan McPherson · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +107at DraftKings | 5 of 15· last 15 games33%needs 48% to break even3 of 11 on the road | -28.3Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 1.5 field goals madeEvan McPherson · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +129at DraftKings | 12 of 17· last season71%needs 44% to break even7 of 11 on the road | Record is last season's | -4.7Not beating its price | |
| Over 2.5 extra points madeEvan McPherson · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +113at DraftKings | 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 47% to break even4 of 11 on the road | -12.8Not beating its price | ||
| Under 2.5 extra points madeEvan McPherson · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -144at DraftKings | 9 of 17· last season53%needs 59% to break even7 of 11 on the road | Record is last season's | -27.6Not beating its price | |
| Over 1.5 field goals madeEvan McPherson · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -166at DraftKings | 7 of 15· last 15 games47%needs 62% to break even4 of 11 on the road | -34.6Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.