This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 51% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 51% to break even | 14%–73% | 11 points shortwon 40%, needs 51% |
| Last 10 games | 4 of 1040%needs 51% to break even | 19%–65% | 11 points shortwon 40%, needs 51% |
| Last 15 games | 4 of 1527%needs 51% to break even | 13%–48% | 25 points shortwon 27%, needs 51% |
| This season | 2 of 450%needs 51% to break even | 18%–82% | 1 points shortwon 50%, needs 51% |
| Last season | 4 of 1625%needs 51% to break even | 12%–45% | 26 points shortwon 25%, needs 51% |
| Every game |
Tonight PHI plays at home, as the underdog, after a loss, against DAL. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receptions in each game against over 4.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Receptions | Beat 4.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 6 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Wk 5 | ||||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 4.5 receptionsDallas Goedert |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scores a TDDallas Goedert · Mon, Oct 26, 8:15 PM ET |
| 16%–48% |
| 21 points shortwon 30%, needs 51% |
| 6 |
| +1.5 |
| Won |
| Wk 2 | 1 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | 4 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 19 | 4 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 17 | 3 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 16 | 3 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 15 | 6 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 14 | 8 | +3.5 | Won |
| Wk 13 | 2 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Wk 12 | 2 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Wk 11 | 2 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Wk 10 | 4 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 8 | 3 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 7 | 3 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 6 | 9 | +4.5 | Won |
| Wk 5 | 3 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 4 | 4 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 | 1 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | 7 | +2.5 | Won |
| -104at DraftKings |
| 12 of 16· last season75%needs 51% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -9.7Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +198at Kalshi |
| 9 of 16· last season56%needs 34% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -9.0Not beating its price |
| Under 40.5 receiving yardsDallas Goedert · Mon, Oct 26, 8:15 PM ETListed questionable | -113at DraftKings | 11 of 16· last season69%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -13.7Not beating its price |
| Under 39.5 receiving yardsDallas Goedert · Mon, Oct 26, 8:15 PM ETListed questionable | -113at BetRivers | 11 of 16· last season69%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -13.7Not beating its price |
| Under 38.5 receiving yardsDallas Goedert · Mon, Oct 26, 8:15 PM ETListed questionable | -114at FanDuel | 11 of 16· last season69%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -13.9Not beating its price |
| Over 40.5 receiving yardsDallas Goedert · Mon, Oct 26, 8:15 PM ETListed questionable | -111at DraftKings | 4 of 10· last 10 games40%needs 53% to break even | -28.4Not beating its price |
| Over 38.5 receiving yardsDallas Goedert · Mon, Oct 26, 8:15 PM ETListed questionable | -114at FanDuel | 4 of 10· last 10 games40%needs 53% to break even | -28.9Not beating its price |
| Over 39.5 receiving yardsDallas Goedert · Mon, Oct 26, 8:15 PM ETListed questionable | -118at BetRivers | 4 of 10· last 10 games40%needs 54% to break even | -29.6Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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