This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 53% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 250%needs 53% to break even | 12%–88% | 3 points shortwon 50%, needs 53% | 19.5rushing yards |
| Last 10 games | 1 of 250%needs 53% to break even | 12%–88% | 3 points shortwon 50%, needs 53% | 19.5rushing yards |
| Last 15 games | 1 of 250%needs 53% to break even | 12%–88% | 3 points shortwon 50%, needs 53% | 19.5rushing yards |
| This season | 1 of 250%needs 53% to break even | 12%–88% | 3 points shortwon 50%, needs 53% | 19.5rushing yards |
| Every game | 1 of 250%needs 53% to break even | 12%–88% | 3 points shortwon 50%, needs 53% | 19.5rushing yards |
Tonight DEN plays on the road, as the favorite, after a win, against ARI. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Tonight: ARI allows 107 rushing yards a game to running backs, the 5th most of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 89.6): a tough matchup for this bet. How ARI defends running backs
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Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Rushing yards in each game against under 19.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 19.5 rushing yardsJonah Coleman · Tomorrow 4:05 PM ETListed out | -108at DraftKings | – | Too few games |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.