This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 43% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 43% to break even | 14%–73% | 3 points shortwon 40%, needs 43% |
| Last 10 games | 4 of 1040%needs 43% to break even | 19%–65% | 3 points shortwon 40%, needs 43% |
| Last 15 games | 8 of 1553%needs 43% to break even | 33%–72% | 11 points betterwon 53%, needs 43% |
| This season | 3 of 650%needs 43% to break even | 22%–78% | 7 points betterwon 50%, needs 43% |
| Last season | 7 of 1450%needs 43% to break even | 30%–70% | 7 points betterwon 50%, needs 43% |
| Every game |
Tonight ARI plays at home, as the underdog, after a win, against DEN. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Rushing yards in each game against over 9.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Rushing yards | Beat 9.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 2 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 5 | ||||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 6.5 rushing yardsJacoby Brissett |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 passing TDsJacoby Brissett |
| 10 of 2050%needs 43% to break even |
| 33%–67% |
| 7 points betterwon 50%, needs 43% |
| 19 |
| +9.5 |
| Won |
| Wk 4 | 18 | +8.5 | Won |
| Wk 3 | 4 | -5.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 | 7 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | 14 | +4.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 18 | 19 | +9.5 | Won | |
| Wk 17 | 0 | -9.5 | Lost |
| Wk 16 | 5 | -4.5 | Lost |
| Wk 15 | 6 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Wk 14 | 22 | +12.5 | Won |
| Wk 13 | 16 | +6.5 | Won |
| Wk 12 | 20 | +10.5 | Won |
| Wk 11 | -2 | -11.5 | Lost |
| Wk 10 | 31 | +21.5 | Won |
| Wk 9 | 4 | -5.5 | Lost |
| Wk 7 | 26 | +16.5 | Won |
| Wk 6 | 19 | +9.5 | Won |
| Wk 5 | 0 | -9.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 | 2 | -7.5 | Lost |
| -110at DraftKings |
| 7 of 14· last season50%needs 52% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -24.5Not beating its price |
| Under 7.5 rushing yardsJacoby Brissett · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | -115at BetMGM | 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 53% to break even | -20.0Not beating its price |
| Under 9.5 rushing yardsJacoby Brissett · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | -168at Kalshi | 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 63% to break even | -27.3Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +129at Kalshi |
| 10 of 14· last season71%needs 44% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -5.3Not beating its price |
| Over 0.5 interceptions thrownJacoby Brissett · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | -112at Kalshi | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 53% to break even | -11.2Not beating its price |
| Over 249.5 passing yardsJacoby Brissett · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | +146at Kalshi | 8 of 14· last season57%needs 41% to break even | Record is last season's | -12.7Not beating its price |
| Over 238.5 passing yardsJacoby Brissett · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | -111at DraftKings | 10 of 14· last season71%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -15.4Not beating its price |
| Over 234.5 passing yardsJacoby Brissett · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | -112at BetOnline | 10 of 14· last season71%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -15.5Not beating its price |
| Over 231.5 passing yardsJacoby Brissett · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | -114at FanDuel | 10 of 14· last season71%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -15.9Not beating its price |
| Over 23.5 completionsJacoby Brissett · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | -107at Kalshi | 9 of 15· last 15 games60%needs 52% to break even | -16.0Not beating its price |
| Over 224.5 passing yardsJacoby Brissett · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | -116at Kalshi | 10 of 14· last season71%needs 54% to break even | Record is last season's | -16.2Not beating its price |
| Over 237.5 passing yardsJacoby Brissett · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | -121at BetRivers | 10 of 14· last season71%needs 55% to break even | Record is last season's | -17.1Not beating its price |
| Over 36.5 pass attemptsJacoby Brissett · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | -126at Kalshi | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 56% to break even | -20.6Not beating its price |
| Under 199.5 passing yardsJacoby Brissett · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | +181at Kalshi | 2 of 5· last 5 games40%needs 36% to break even | -22.1Not beating its price |
| Under 36.5 pass attemptsJacoby Brissett · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | -107at Kalshi | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 52% to break even | -22.7Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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