This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 54% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 520%needs 54% to break even | 5%–56% | 34 points shortwon 20%, needs 54% |
| Last 10 games | 5 of 1050%needs 54% to break even | 27%–73% | 4 points shortwon 50%, needs 54% |
| Last 15 games | 7 of 1547%needs 54% to break even | 28%–67% | 7 points shortwon 47%, needs 54% |
| This season | 1 of 333%needs 54% to break even | 8%–75% | 20 points shortwon 33%, needs 54% |
| Last season | 6 of 1250%needs 54% to break even | 29%–71% | 4 points shortwon 50%, needs 54% |
| Every game | 7 of 1547%needs 54% to break even | 28%–67% | 7 points shortwon 47%, needs 54% |
Tonight ARI plays at home, as the underdog, after a win, against DEN. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Rush attempts in each game against over 8.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Rush attempts | Beat 8.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 15 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Wk 5 | 1 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 2 | 2 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 15 | 1 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 14 | 7 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 13 | 11 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Wk 12 | 10 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Wk 11 | 5 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 10 | 10 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Wk 9 | 9 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 7 | 14 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Wk 6 | 11 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Wk 5 | 4 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | 0 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 2 | 0 | -8.5 | Lost | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 8.5 rush attemptsBam Knight · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | -103at Kalshi | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 51% to break even | -15.0Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.