This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 47% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 47% to break even | 27%–86% | 13 points betterwon 60%, needs 47% |
| Last 10 games | 3 of 1030%needs 47% to break even | 13%–56% | 17 points shortwon 30%, needs 47% |
| Last 15 games | 3 of 1520%needs 47% to break even | 8%–41% | 27 points shortwon 20%, needs 47% |
| This season | 3 of 560%needs 47% to break even | 27%–86% | 13 points betterwon 60%, needs 47% |
| Last season | 3 of 1520%needs 47% to break even | 8%–41% | 27 points shortwon 20%, needs 47% |
| Every game |
Tonight ARI plays at home, as the underdog, after a win, against DEN. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receptions in each game against over 3.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Receptions | Beat 3.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 5 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Wk 5 | ||||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 receptionsKendrick Bourne |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 36.5 receiving yardsKendrick Bourne |
| 16%–48% |
| 17 points shortwon 30%, needs 47% |
| 5 |
| +1.5 |
| Won |
| Wk 3 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | 8 | +4.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 20 | 0 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 18 | 0 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Wk 17 | 1 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Wk 16 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 15 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 13 | 0 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Wk 10 | 1 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Wk 9 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 8 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 7 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 6 | 5 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 5 | 10 | +6.5 | Won |
| Wk 4 | 1 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 | 4 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost |
| +173at Kalshi |
| 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 37% to break even |
| -1.2Not beating its price |
| Under 3.5 receptionsKendrick Bourne · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | -122at DraftKings | 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 55% to break even | -6.4Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| -110at DraftKings |
| 11 of 15· last 15 games73%needs 52% to break even |
| -7.5Not beating its price |
| Under 35.5 receiving yardsKendrick Bourne · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | -114at FanDuel | 11 of 15· last 15 games73%needs 53% to break even | -8.2Not beating its price |
| Under 33.5 receiving yardsKendrick Bourne · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | -111at BetMGM | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 53% to break even | -10.6Not beating its price |
| Under 39.5 receiving yardsKendrick Bourne · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | -148at Kalshi | 12 of 15· last season80%needs 60% to break even | Record is last season's | -11.6Not beating its price |
| Over 49.5 receiving yardsKendrick Bourne · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | +198at Kalshi | 2 of 5· last 5 games40%needs 34% to break even | -21.3Not beating its price |
| Over 39.5 receiving yardsKendrick Bourne · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | +109at Kalshi | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 48% to break even | -27.1Not beating its price |
| Over 33.5 receiving yardsKendrick Bourne · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | -120at BetMGM | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 55% to break even | -29.2Not beating its price |
| Over 36.5 receiving yardsKendrick Bourne · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | -114at DraftKings | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 53% to break even | -30.3Not beating its price |
| Over 35.5 receiving yardsKendrick Bourne · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | -114at FanDuel | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 53% to break even | -30.3Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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