This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 54% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 54% to break even | 27%–86% | 6 points betterwon 60%, needs 54% |
| Last 10 games | 6 of 1060%needs 54% to break even | 35%–81% | 6 points betterwon 60%, needs 54% |
| Last 15 games | 11 of 1573%needs 54% to break even | 52%–87% | 20 points betterwon 73%, needs 54% |
| This season | 3 of 560%needs 54% to break even | 27%–86% | 6 points betterwon 60%, needs 54% |
| Last season | 14 of 1782%needs 54% to break even | 63%–93% |
Tonight DEN plays on the road, as the favorite, after a win, against ARI. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receiving yards in each game against over 14.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Receiving yards | Beat 14.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 2 | -12.5 | ||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 10.5 receiving yardsTroy Franklin |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 receptionsTroy Franklin |
| Every game | 17 of 2277%needs 54% to break even | 60%–88% | 24 points betterwon 77%, needs 54% |
| Lost |
| Wk 5 | 16 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 3 | 21 | +6.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | 27 | +12.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 0 | -14.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 18 | 0 | -14.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 17 | 17 | +2.5 | Won |
| Wk 16 | 66 | +51.5 | Won |
| Wk 15 | 85 | +70.5 | Won |
| Wk 14 | 11 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Wk 13 | 21 | +6.5 | Won |
| Wk 11 | 84 | +69.5 | Won |
| Wk 10 | 40 | +25.5 | Won |
| Wk 9 | 27 | +12.5 | Won |
| Wk 8 | 89 | +74.5 | Won |
| Wk 7 | 19 | +4.5 | Won |
| Wk 6 | 19 | +4.5 | Won |
| Wk 5 | 35 | +20.5 | Won |
| Wk 4 | 55 | +40.5 | Won |
| Wk 3 | 8 | -6.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 | 89 | +74.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 44 | +29.5 | Won |
| +150at BetRivers |
| 2 of 5· last 5 games40%needs 40% to break even |
| -25.1Not beating its price |
| Under 14.5 receiving yardsTroy Franklin · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | -121at Kalshi | 4 of 10· last 10 games40%needs 55% to break even | -34.1Not beating its price |
| Under 15.5 receiving yardsTroy Franklin · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | -110at BetMGM | 4 of 10· last 10 games40%needs 52% to break even | -32.1Not beating its price |
| Under 16.5 receiving yardsTroy Franklin · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | -118at BetOnline | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 54% to break even | -29.1Not beating its price |
| Under 17.5 receiving yardsTroy Franklin · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | -114at FanDuel | 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 53% to break even | -24.7Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| -107at Kalshi |
| 16 of 17· last season94%needs 52% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -6.9Not beating its price |
| Under 1.5 receptionsTroy Franklin · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | +105at BetMGM | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 49% to break even | -23.8Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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