This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 52% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 52% to break even | 27%–86% | 8 points betterwon 60%, needs 52% |
| Last 10 games | 6 of 1060%needs 52% to break even | 35%–81% | 8 points betterwon 60%, needs 52% |
| Last 15 games | 8 of 1553%needs 52% to break even | 33%–72% | 2 points betterwon 53%, needs 52% |
| This season | 3 of 560%needs 52% to break even | 27%–86% | 8 points betterwon 60%, needs 52% |
| Last season | 7 of 1937%needs 52% to break even | 21%–56% | 15 points shortwon 37%, needs 52% |
Tonight DEN plays on the road, as the favorite, after a win, against ARI. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receiving yards in each game against over 24.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Receiving yards | Beat 24.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | ||||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 24.5 receiving yardsRJ Harvey · |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 4.5 receptionsRJ Harvey · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET |
| Every game | 10 of 2442%needs 52% to break even | 27%–58% | 10 points shortwon 42%, needs 52% |
| 31 |
| +6.5 |
| Won |
| Wk 5 | 0 | -24.5 | Lost |
| Wk 4 | 68 | +43.5 | Won |
| Wk 3 | 41 | +16.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 23 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 21 | 22 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 20 | 46 | +21.5 | Won |
| Wk 18 | 5 | -19.5 | Lost |
| Wk 17 | 33 | +8.5 | Won |
| Wk 16 | 71 | +46.5 | Won |
| Wk 15 | 0 | -24.5 | Lost |
| Wk 14 | 25 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 13 | 27 | +2.5 | Won |
| Wk 11 | 20 | -4.5 | Lost |
| Wk 10 | 9 | -15.5 | Lost |
| Wk 9 | 51 | +26.5 | Won |
| Wk 8 | 5 | -19.5 | Lost |
| Wk 7 | 2 | -22.5 | Lost |
| Wk 6 | 21 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Wk 5 | 18 | -6.5 | Lost |
| Wk 4 | 40 | +15.5 | Won |
| Wk 3 | 14 | -10.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 | 16 | -8.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | -1 | -25.5 | Lost |
| -121at Kalshi |
| 12 of 19· last season63%needs 55% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -21.9Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +181at Kalshi |
| 4 of 10· last 10 games40%needs 36% to break even |
| -17.1Not beating its price |
| Over 3.5 receptionsRJ Harvey · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | -116at Kalshi | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 54% to break even | -17.6Not beating its price |
| Under 2.5 receptionsRJ Harvey · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | +189at Kalshi | 7 of 19· last season37%needs 35% to break even | Record is last season's | -18.4Not beating its price |
| Under 3.5 receptionsRJ Harvey · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | -116at Kalshi | 11 of 19· last season58%needs 54% to break even | Record is last season's | -23.7Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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