This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 56% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 56% to break even | 14%–73% | 16 points shortwon 40%, needs 56% |
| Last 10 games | 7 of 1070%needs 56% to break even | 44%–87% | 14 points betterwon 70%, needs 56% |
| Last 15 games | 10 of 1567%needs 56% to break even | 46%–83% | 11 points betterwon 67%, needs 56% |
| This season | 3 of 650%needs 56% to break even | 22%–78% | 6 points shortwon 50%, needs 56% |
| Last season | 8 of 1747%needs 56% to break even | 29%–66% | 8 points shortwon 47%, needs 56% |
| Every game |
Tonight ARI plays at home, as the underdog, after a win, against DEN. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receiving yards in each game against over 45.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 39.5 receiving yardsMichael Wilson |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 4.5 receptionsMichael Wilson |
| 32%–64% |
| 8 points shortwon 48%, needs 56% |
| 32 |
| -13.5 |
| Lost |
| Wk 5 | 30 | -15.5 | Lost |
| Wk 4 | 95 | +49.5 | Won |
| Wk 3 | 89 | +43.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | 18 | -27.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | 56 | +10.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 18 | 99 | +53.5 | Won | |
| Wk 17 | 89 | +43.5 | Won |
| Wk 16 | 52 | +6.5 | Won |
| Wk 15 | 54 | +8.5 | Won |
| Wk 14 | 142 | +96.5 | Won |
| Wk 13 | 36 | -9.5 | Lost |
| Wk 12 | 118 | +72.5 | Won |
| Wk 11 | 185 | +139.5 | Won |
| Wk 10 | 34 | -11.5 | Lost |
| Wk 9 | 61 | +15.5 | Won |
| Wk 7 | 40 | -5.5 | Lost |
| Wk 6 | 44 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 5 | 16 | -29.5 | Lost |
| Wk 4 | 15 | -30.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 | 5 | -40.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 | 11 | -34.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | 5 | -40.5 | Lost |
| +134at Kalshi |
| 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 43% to break even |
| -18.2Not beating its price |
| Under 45.5 receiving yardsMichael Wilson · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | -115at BetRivers | 9 of 17· last season53%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -25.0Not beating its price |
| Under 47.5 receiving yardsMichael Wilson · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | -114at FanDuel | 9 of 17· last season53%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -24.9Not beating its price |
| Under 49.5 receiving yardsMichael Wilson · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | -112at DraftKings | 9 of 17· last season53%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -24.5Not beating its price |
| Under 50.5 receiving yardsMichael Wilson · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | -115at BetMGM | 9 of 17· last season53%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -25.0Not beating its price |
| Under 59.5 receiving yardsMichael Wilson · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | -199at Kalshi | 11 of 17· last season65%needs 67% to break even | Record is last season's | -25.2Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +105at BetRivers |
| 9 of 15· last 15 games60%needs 49% to break even |
| -18.4Not beating its price |
| Under 4.5 receptionsMichael Wilson · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | -115at BetMGM | 11 of 17· last season65%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -20.9Not beating its price |
| Under 3.5 receptionsMichael Wilson · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | +152at Kalshi | 9 of 17· last season53%needs 40% to break even | Record is last season's | -21.9Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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