This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 53% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 4 of 580%needs 53% to break even | 44%–95% | 27 points betterwon 80%, needs 53% |
| Last 10 games | 7 of 1070%needs 53% to break even | 44%–87% | 17 points betterwon 70%, needs 53% |
| Last 15 games | 7 of 1547%needs 53% to break even | 28%–67% | 7 points shortwon 47%, needs 53% |
| This season | 5 of 683%needs 53% to break even | 50%–96% | 30 points betterwon 83%, needs 53% |
| Last season | 6 of 1932%needs 53% to break even | 17%–50% | 22 points shortwon 32%, needs 53% |
Tonight DEN plays on the road, as the favorite, after a win, against ARI. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receiving yards in each game against under 35.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Receiving yards | Beat 35.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 35.5 receiving yardsCourtland Sutton |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 receptionsCourtland Sutton |
| Every game | 11 of 2544%needs 53% to break even | 29%–60% | 9 points shortwon 44%, needs 53% |
| Wk 6 | 19 | +16.5 | Won |
| Wk 5 | 18 | +17.5 | Won |
| Wk 4 | 4 | +31.5 | Won |
| Wk 3 | 46 | -10.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 | 25 | +10.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 11 | +24.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 21 | 17 | +18.5 | Won | |
| Wk 20 | 53 | -17.5 | Lost |
| Wk 18 | 5 | +30.5 | Won |
| Wk 17 | 40 | -4.5 | Lost |
| Wk 16 | 86 | -50.5 | Lost |
| Wk 15 | 113 | -77.5 | Lost |
| Wk 14 | 62 | -26.5 | Lost |
| Wk 13 | 62 | -26.5 | Lost |
| Wk 11 | 59 | -23.5 | Lost |
| Wk 10 | 24 | +11.5 | Won |
| Wk 9 | 30 | +5.5 | Won |
| Wk 8 | 67 | -31.5 | Lost |
| Wk 7 | 87 | -51.5 | Lost |
| Wk 6 | 17 | +18.5 | Won |
| Wk 5 | 99 | -63.5 | Lost |
| Wk 4 | 81 | -45.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 | 118 | -82.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 | 6 | +29.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 61 | -25.5 | Lost |
| -114at FanDuel |
| 13 of 19· last season68%needs 53% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -25.2Not beating its price |
| Over 36.5 receiving yardsCourtland Sutton · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | -109at DraftKings | 13 of 19· last season68%needs 52% to break even | Record is last season's | -24.3Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| -143at DraftKings |
| 6 of 6· this season100%needs 59% to break even |
| Record is this season's |
| -11.3Not beating its price |
| Under 2.5 receptionsCourtland Sutton · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | +124at Kalshi | 4 of 6· this season67%needs 45% to break even | Record is this season's | -18.6Not beating its price |
| Over 3.5 receptionsCourtland Sutton · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | +132at FanDuel | 13 of 19· last season68%needs 43% to break even | Record is last season's | -19.8Not beating its price |
| Over 2.5 receptionsCourtland Sutton · Sun, Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET | -175at Kalshi | 15 of 19· last season79%needs 64% to break even | Record is last season's | -24.6Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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