This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 52% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 52% to break even | 14%–73% | 12 points shortwon 40%, needs 52% |
| Last 10 games | 3 of 1030%needs 52% to break even | 13%–56% | 22 points shortwon 30%, needs 52% |
| Last 15 games | 8 of 1553%needs 52% to break even | 33%–72% | 1 points betterwon 53%, needs 52% |
| This season | 2 of 540%needs 52% to break even | 14%–73% | 12 points shortwon 40%, needs 52% |
| Last season | 9 of 1369%needs 52% to break even | 46%–85% | 17 points betterwon 69%, needs 52% |
| Every game |
Tonight NO plays at home, as the underdog, after a win, against PIT. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receiving yards in each game against over 11.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 11.5 receiving yardsNoah Fant |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 1.5 receptionsNoah Fant · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET |
| 42%–77% |
| 9 points betterwon 61%, needs 52% |
| -4.5 |
| Lost |
| Wk 3 | 33 | +21.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | 0 | -11.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | 33 | +21.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 18 | 5 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 17 | 0 | -11.5 | Lost |
| Wk 14 | 15 | +3.5 | Won |
| Wk 13 | 3 | -8.5 | Lost |
| Wk 12 | 9 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Wk 11 | 36 | +24.5 | Won |
| Wk 9 | 28 | +16.5 | Won |
| Wk 8 | 41 | +29.5 | Won |
| Wk 7 | 44 | +32.5 | Won |
| Wk 6 | 27 | +15.5 | Won |
| Wk 3 | 26 | +14.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | 28 | +16.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 26 | +14.5 | Won |
| -112at BetRivers |
| 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 53% to break even |
| -19.7Not beating its price |
| Under 12.5 receiving yardsNoah Fant · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | -111at BetMGM | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 53% to break even | -19.5Not beating its price |
| Under 14.5 receiving yardsNoah Fant · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | -161at Kalshi | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 62% to break even | -26.6Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +100at Fanatics |
| 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 50% to break even |
| -13.1Not beating its price |
| Over 1.5 receptionsNoah Fant · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | -115at BetMGM | 8 of 13· last season62%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -23.4Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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