This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 48% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 48% to break even | 14%–73% | 8 points shortwon 40%, needs 48% |
| Last 10 games | 2 of 540%needs 48% to break even | 14%–73% | 8 points shortwon 40%, needs 48% |
| Last 15 games | 2 of 540%needs 48% to break even | 14%–73% | 8 points shortwon 40%, needs 48% |
| This season | 2 of 540%needs 48% to break even | 14%–73% | 8 points shortwon 40%, needs 48% |
| Every game | 2 of 540%needs 48% to break even | 14%–73% | 8 points shortwon 40%, needs 48% |
Tonight PIT plays on the road, as the favorite, after a win, against NO. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receiving yards in each game against over 59.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 39.5 receiving yardsGermie Bernard |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 4.5 receptionsGermie Bernard |
| 35 |
| -24.5 |
| Lost |
| +181at Kalshi |
| 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 36% to break even |
| -4.2Not beating its price |
| Under 49.5 receiving yardsGermie Bernard · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | +114at Kalshi | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 47% to break even | -9.7Not beating its price |
| Under 52.5 receiving yardsGermie Bernard · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | -111at BetMGM | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 53% to break even | -12.7Not beating its price |
| Under 53.5 receiving yardsGermie Bernard · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | -114at FanDuel | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 53% to break even | -13.0Not beating its price |
| Under 54.5 receiving yardsGermie Bernard · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | -107at Kalshi | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 52% to break even | -12.2Not beating its price |
| Under 55.5 receiving yardsGermie Bernard · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | -112at DraftKings | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 53% to break even | -12.8Not beating its price |
| Under 59.5 receiving yardsGermie Bernard · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | -142at Kalshi | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 59% to break even | -15.7Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +124at Kalshi |
| 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 45% to break even |
| -8.7Not beating its price |
| Over 5.5 receptionsGermie Bernard · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | +124at Kalshi | 2 of 5· last 5 games40%needs 45% to break even | -15.2Not beating its price |
| Under 5.5 receptionsGermie Bernard · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | -150at BetMGM | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 60% to break even | -16.4Not beating its price |
| Over 4.5 receptionsGermie Bernard · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | -148at BetRivers | 2 of 5· last 5 games40%needs 60% to break even | -22.7Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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