This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 57% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 57% to break even | 27%–86% | 3 points betterwon 60%, needs 57% |
| Last 10 games | 7 of 1070%needs 57% to break even | 44%–87% | 13 points betterwon 70%, needs 57% |
| Last 15 games | 7 of 1547%needs 57% to break even | 28%–67% | 10 points shortwon 47%, needs 57% |
| This season | 4 of 667%needs 57% to break even | 35%–88% | 10 points betterwon 67%, needs 57% |
| Last season | 3 of 933%needs 57% to break even | 14%–60% | 23 points shortwon 33%, needs 57% |
Tonight NO plays at home, as the underdog, after a win, against PIT. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receiving yards in each game against over 39.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 39.5 receiving yardsDevaughn Vele |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 receptionsDevaughn Vele |
| Every game |
| 7 of 1547%needs 57% to break even |
| 28%–67% |
| 10 points shortwon 47%, needs 57% |
| 54 |
| +14.5 |
| Won |
| Wk 3 | 39 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 | 64 | +24.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 69 | +29.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 15 | 69 | +29.5 | Won | |
| Wk 14 | 40 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 13 | 93 | +53.5 | Won |
| Wk 12 | 37 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Wk 10 | 15 | -24.5 | Lost |
| Wk 8 | 10 | -29.5 | Lost |
| Wk 5 | 13 | -26.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 | 3 | -36.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | 13 | -26.5 | Lost |
| +105at Kalshi |
| 6 of 9· last season67%needs 49% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -18.9Not beating its price |
| Under 40.5 receiving yardsDevaughn Vele · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | -112at DraftKings | 7 of 9· last season78%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -18.0Not beating its price |
| Under 41.5 receiving yardsDevaughn Vele · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | -112at BetOnline | 7 of 9· last season78%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -18.0Not beating its price |
| Under 43.5 receiving yardsDevaughn Vele · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | -115at BetMGM | 7 of 9· last season78%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -13.4Not beating its price |
| Under 49.5 receiving yardsDevaughn Vele · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | -175at Kalshi | 7 of 9· last season78%needs 64% to break even | Record is last season's | -21.0Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +125at Bovada |
| 7 of 9· last season78%needs 44% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -11.7Not beating its price |
| Over 4.5 receptionsDevaughn Vele · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | +140at Kalshi | 5 of 10· last 10 games50%needs 42% to break even | -18.3Not beating its price |
| Under 4.5 receptionsDevaughn Vele · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | -166at FanDuel | 7 of 9· last season78%needs 62% to break even | Record is last season's | -20.1Not beating its price |
| Over 3.5 receptionsDevaughn Vele · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | -143at BetOnline | 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 59% to break even | -25.8Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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