This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 53% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 520%needs 53% to break even | 5%–56% | 33 points shortwon 20%, needs 53% |
| Last 10 games | 2 of 1020%needs 53% to break even | 7%–46% | 33 points shortwon 20%, needs 53% |
| Last 15 games | 4 of 1233%needs 53% to break even | 16%–57% | 20 points shortwon 33%, needs 53% |
| This season | 1 of 250%needs 53% to break even | 12%–88% | 3 points shortwon 50%, needs 53% |
| Last season | 3 of 1030%needs 53% to break even | 13%–56% | 23 points shortwon 30%, needs 53% |
| Every game |
Tonight NYG plays on the road, as the underdog, after a loss, against HOU. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Rushing yards in each game against over 23.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 19.5 rushing yardsJ.J. McCarthy · |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 28.5 pass attemptsJ.J. McCarthy |
| 16%–57% |
| 20 points shortwon 33%, needs 53% |
| Wk 16 | 20 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Wk 15 | 15 | -8.5 | Lost |
| Wk 14 | 19 | -4.5 | Lost |
| Wk 12 | 10 | -13.5 | Lost |
| Wk 11 | 0 | -23.5 | Lost |
| Wk 10 | 48 | +24.5 | Won |
| Wk 9 | 12 | -11.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 | 25 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 25 | +1.5 | Won |
| +129at Kalshi |
| 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 44% to break even |
| -5.4Not beating its price |
| Under 20.5 rushing yardsJ.J. McCarthy · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +110at Fanatics | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 48% to break even | -1.0Not beating its price |
| Under 23.5 rushing yardsJ.J. McCarthy · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -109at DraftKings | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 52% to break even | -4.2Not beating its price |
| Under 24.5 rushing yardsJ.J. McCarthy · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -126at Kalshi | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 56% to break even | -6.7Not beating its price |
| Under 29.5 rushing yardsJ.J. McCarthy · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -183at Kalshi | 11 of 12· last 15 games, 3 skipped92%needs 65% to break even | 1.2Slight |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +198at Kalshi |
| 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 34% to break even |
| 17.0Very strong |
| Under 18.5 completionsJ.J. McCarthy · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +105at Kalshi | 11 of 12· last 15 games, 3 skipped92%needs 49% to break even | 12.4Strong |
| Under 33.5 pass attemptsJ.J. McCarthy · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -148at Kalshi | 11 of 12· last 15 games, 3 skipped92%needs 60% to break even | 4.7Good |
| Under 5.5 rush attemptsJ.J. McCarthy · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -131at Kalshi | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 57% to break even | 0.6Slight |
| Under 174.5 passing yardsJ.J. McCarthy · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +152at Kalshi | 7 of 10· last season70%needs 40% to break even | Record is last season's | -2.6Not beating its price |
| Under 202.5 passing yardsJ.J. McCarthy · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -111at DraftKings | 8 of 10· last season80%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -4.8Not beating its price |
| Under 199.5 passing yardsJ.J. McCarthy · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -112at Kalshi | 8 of 10· last season80%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -4.9Not beating its price |
| Under 200.5 passing yardsJ.J. McCarthy · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -114at FanDuel | 8 of 10· last season80%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -5.2Not beating its price |
| Under 195.5 passing yardsJ.J. McCarthy · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -115at BetRivers | 8 of 10· last season80%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -5.4Not beating its price |
| Under 0.5 passing TDsJ.J. McCarthy · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +159at Kalshi | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 39% to break even | -12.1Not beating its price |
| Over 0.5 interceptions thrownJ.J. McCarthy · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -175at Kalshi | 8 of 10· last season80%needs 64% to break even | Record is last season's | -12.5Not beating its price |
| Under 224.5 passing yardsJ.J. McCarthy · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -191at Kalshi | 8 of 10· last season80%needs 66% to break even | Record is last season's | -14.0Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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