This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 53% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 53% to break even | 27%–86% | 7 points betterwon 60%, needs 53% |
| Last 10 games | 7 of 1070%needs 53% to break even | 44%–87% | 17 points betterwon 70%, needs 53% |
| Last 15 games | 9 of 1275%needs 53% to break even | 51%–90% | 22 points betterwon 75%, needs 53% |
| This season | 1 of 250%needs 53% to break even | 12%–88% | 3 points shortwon 50%, needs 53% |
| Last season | 8 of 1080%needs 53% to break even | 54%–93% | 27 points betterwon 80%, needs 53% |
Tonight NYG plays on the road, as the underdog, after a loss, against HOU. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Passing yards in each game against under 200.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 195.5 passing yardsJ.J. McCarthy · |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 18.5 completionsJ.J. McCarthy |
| Every game | 9 of 1275%needs 53% to break even | 51%–90% | 22 points betterwon 75%, needs 53% |
| Won |
| Wk 16 | 108 | +92.5 | Won |
| Wk 15 | 250 | -49.5 | Lost |
| Wk 14 | 163 | +37.5 | Won |
| Wk 12 | 87 | +113.5 | Won |
| Wk 11 | 150 | +50.5 | Won |
| Wk 10 | 248 | -47.5 | Lost |
| Wk 9 | 143 | +57.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | 158 | +42.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 143 | +57.5 | Won |
| -115at BetRivers |
| 2 of 5· last 5 games40%needs 53% to break even |
| -30.3Not beating its price |
| Over 199.5 passing yardsJ.J. McCarthy · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -112at Kalshi | 2 of 5· last 5 games40%needs 53% to break even | -29.8Not beating its price |
| Over 200.5 passing yardsJ.J. McCarthy · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -114at FanDuel | 2 of 5· last 5 games40%needs 53% to break even | -30.1Not beating its price |
| Over 202.5 passing yardsJ.J. McCarthy · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -113at DraftKings | 2 of 5· last 5 games40%needs 53% to break even | -30.0Not beating its price |
| Over 224.5 passing yardsJ.J. McCarthy · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +152at Kalshi | 2 of 5· last 5 games40%needs 40% to break even | -20.5Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +101at Kalshi |
| 11 of 12· last 15 games, 3 skipped92%needs 50% to break even |
| 11.7Strong |
| Under 33.5 pass attemptsJ.J. McCarthy · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -148at Kalshi | 11 of 12· last 15 games, 3 skipped92%needs 60% to break even | 4.7Good |
| Under 29.5 rushing yardsJ.J. McCarthy · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -183at Kalshi | 11 of 12· last 15 games, 3 skipped92%needs 65% to break even | 1.2Slight |
| Under 5.5 rush attemptsJ.J. McCarthy · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -131at Kalshi | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 57% to break even | 0.6Slight |
| Under 20.5 rushing yardsJ.J. McCarthy · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +110at Fanatics | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 48% to break even | -1.0Not beating its price |
| Under 23.5 rushing yardsJ.J. McCarthy · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -109at DraftKings | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 52% to break even | -4.2Not beating its price |
| Under 19.5 rushing yardsJ.J. McCarthy · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +129at Kalshi | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 44% to break even | -5.4Not beating its price |
| Under 24.5 rushing yardsJ.J. McCarthy · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -121at Kalshi | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 55% to break even | -6.0Not beating its price |
| Under 0.5 passing TDsJ.J. McCarthy · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +159at Kalshi | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 39% to break even | -12.1Not beating its price |
| Over 0.5 interceptions thrownJ.J. McCarthy · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -183at Kalshi | 8 of 10· last season80%needs 65% to break even | Record is last season's | -13.3Not beating its price |
| Under 0.5 interceptions thrownJ.J. McCarthy · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +140at Kalshi | 2 of 5· last 5 games40%needs 42% to break even | -21.9Not beating its price |
| Over 29.5 rushing yardsJ.J. McCarthy · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +140at Kalshi | 1 of 10· last 10 games10%needs 42% to break even | -28.2Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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