This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 57% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 57% to break even | 27%–86% | 3 points betterwon 60%, needs 57% |
| Last 10 games | 6 of 1060%needs 57% to break even | 35%–81% | 3 points betterwon 60%, needs 57% |
| Last 15 games | 11 of 1573%needs 57% to break even | 52%–87% | 16 points betterwon 73%, needs 57% |
| This season | 3 of 560%needs 57% to break even | 27%–86% | 3 points betterwon 60%, needs 57% |
| Last season | 9 of 1275%needs 57% to break even | 51%–90% | 18 points betterwon 75%, needs 57% |
| Every game | 12 of 1771%needs 57% to break even | 51%–85% | 13 points betterwon 71%, needs 57% |
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receiving yards in each game against over 28.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Receiving yards | Beat 28.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 34 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Wk 4 | 12 | -16.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 3 | 40 | +11.5 | Won | |
| Wk 2 | 0 | -28.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 1 | 33 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 17 | 0 | -28.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 16 | 14 | -14.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 13 | 69 | +40.5 | Won | |
| Wk 10 | 33 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Wk 9 | 96 | +67.5 | Won | |
| Wk 7 | 58 | +29.5 | Won | |
| Wk 6 | 32 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Wk 5 | 98 | +69.5 | Won | |
| Wk 4 | 66 | +37.5 | Won | |
| Wk 3 | 44 | +15.5 | Won | |
| Wk 2 | 27 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 1 | 71 | +42.5 | Won | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 19.5 receiving yardsMarvin Harrison Jr. · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +166at Kalshi | 4 of 10· last 10 games40%needs 38% to break even | -19.4Not beating its price | ||
| Under 24.5 receiving yardsMarvin Harrison Jr. · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +119at Kalshi | 4 of 10· last 10 games40%needs 46% to break even | -25.7Not beating its price | ||
| Under 28.5 receiving yardsMarvin Harrison Jr. · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +100at BetMGM | 4 of 10· last 10 games40%needs 50% to break even | -27.9Not beating its price | ||
| Under 29.5 receiving yardsMarvin Harrison Jr. · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -103at Kalshi | 4 of 10· last 10 games40%needs 51% to break even | -28.4Not beating its price | ||
| Under 39.5 receiving yardsMarvin Harrison Jr. · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -199at Kalshi | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 67% to break even | -24.8Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 receptionsMarvin Harrison Jr. · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -107at Kalshi | 7 of 12· last season58%needs 52% to break even | Record is last season's | -17.6Not beating its price | |
| Under 2.5 receptionsMarvin Harrison Jr. · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -102at DraftKings | 7 of 15· last 15 games47%needs 50% to break even | -19.2Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.