This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 57% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 57% to break even | 14%–73% | 17 points shortwon 40%, needs 57% | 102.2rushing and receiving yards |
| Last 10 games | 7 of 1070%needs 57% to break even | 44%–87% | 13 points betterwon 70%, needs 57% | 67.7rushing and receiving yards |
| Last 15 games | 11 of 1573%needs 57% to break even | 52%–87% | 17 points betterwon 73%, needs 57% | 60.3rushing and receiving yards |
| This season | 2 of 540%needs 57% to break even | 14%–73% | 17 points shortwon 40%, needs 57% | 102.2rushing and receiving yards |
| Last season |
Tonight CAR plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against TB. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 7 of 9 at home. Tonight: TB allows 100.8 rushing and receiving yards a game to running backs, the 6th fewest of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 120.9): an easy matchup for this bet. How TB defends running backs
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Rush + rec yards in each game against under 89.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Rush + rec yards | Beat 89.5 by |
|---|
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
This player's other props in the game.
| 76%–99% |
| 37 points betterwon 94%, needs 57% |
| 49.6rushing and receiving yards |
| Every game | 17 of 2181%needs 57% to break even | 64%–91% | 24 points betterwon 81%, needs 57% | 62.1rushing and receiving yards |
| Bet |
|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 121 | -31.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | 129 | -39.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 3 | 110 | -20.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 2 | 64 | +25.5 | Won | |
| Wk 1 | 87 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 19 | 59 | +30.5 | Won | |
| Wk 18 | 17 | +72.5 | Won | |
| Wk 17 | 18 | +71.5 | Won | |
| Wk 16 | 34 | +55.5 | Won | |
| Wk 15 | 38 | +51.5 | Won | |
| Wk 13 | 124 | -34.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 12 | 43 | +46.5 | Won | |
| Wk 11 | 28 | +61.5 | Won | |
| Wk 10 | 15 | +74.5 | Won | |
| Wk 9 | 17 | +72.5 | Won | |
| Wk 8 | 34 | +55.5 | Won | |
| Wk 7 | 55 | +34.5 | Won | |
| Wk 4 | 69 | +20.5 | Won | |
| Wk 3 | 76 | +13.5 | Won | |
| Wk 2 | 77 | +12.5 | Won | |
| Wk 1 | 89 | +0.5 | Won | |
| -103at Kalshi |
| 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 51% to break even2 of 9 at home |
| -31.4Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +129at Kalshi |
| 14 of 16· last season88%needs 44% to break even6 of 9 at home |
| Record is last season's |
| 3.1Good |
| Under 17.5 rush attemptsChuba Hubbard · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -137at Kalshi | 16 of 16· last season100%needs 58% to break even8 of 9 at home | Record is last season's | -2.1Not beating its price |
| Under 69.5 rushing yardsChuba Hubbard · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -110at DraftKings | 14 of 16· last season88%needs 52% to break even6 of 9 at home | Record is last season's | -3.4Not beating its price |
| Under 70.5 rushing yardsChuba Hubbard · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -114at FanDuel | 14 of 16· last season88%needs 53% to break even6 of 9 at home | Record is last season's | -4.2Not beating its price |
| Under 67.5 rushing yardsChuba Hubbard · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -115at BetRivers | 14 of 16· last season88%needs 53% to break even6 of 9 at home | Record is last season's | -4.3Not beating its price |
| Under 14.5 receiving yardsChuba Hubbard · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -112at Kalshi | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 53% to break even7 of 9 at home | -6.5Not beating its price |
| Under 2.5 receptionsChuba Hubbard · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -130at BetOnline | 11 of 15· last 15 games73%needs 57% to break even7 of 9 at home | -9.9Not beating its price |
| Under 1.5 receptionsChuba Hubbard · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +198at Kalshi | 7 of 15· last 15 games47%needs 34% to break even4 of 9 at home | -10.2Not beating its price |
| Doesn't score a TDChuba Hubbard · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -107at Kalshi | 11 of 16· last season69%needs 52% to break even4 of 9 at home | Record is last season's | -15.5Not beating its price |
| Scores a TDChuba Hubbard · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -112at Kalshi | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 53% to break even5 of 9 at home | -22.1Not beating its price |
| Over 79.5 rushing yardsChuba Hubbard · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +152at Kalshi | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 40% to break even2 of 9 at home | -22.5Not beating its price |
| Over 2.5 receptionsChuba Hubbard · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +116at DraftKings | 5 of 16· last season31%needs 46% to break even2 of 9 at home | Record is last season's | -26.1Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.
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